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Written by Sara Frisan, Arianna Lucà, and Alessia Cappelletti
Following the 2024 Venezuelan Presidential election, protests have escalated in major cities nationwide. While the situation is still evolving, international reactions have been mixed.
A clear divide is visible. China, Iran, and Russia have rushed to congratulate President Maduro on his victory, while the U.S. and the E.U. have said they would not recognize the election results until all votes were counted and records provided. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the ‘result announced [did] not reflect the will of the voters’. The E.U.’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stressed the importance to ‘ensure full transparency’ and respect the will of Venezuelans.
Other countries in Latin America have also expressed doubts about the outcome, and called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS) permanent council on 31 July. Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Peru, and Panama have rejected the result or called for more transparency. In response, the Foreign Minister Yvan Gil has expelled all diplomatic staff from these states to leave Venezuela with immediate effect.
Instead, other regional partners of Venezuela such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Bolivia have all congratulated President Maduro.
The international response so far is in line with Venezuela’s foreign ties under Maduro, which for the past decade have thrown him and his regime a lifeline. Over the years, Maduro's administration has strengthened ties with Russia and China, while distancing itself from the U.S.. This alignment has been exacerbated by sanctions that exclude Venezuela from the U.S. market. Venezuela has also become increasingly isolated, withdrawing from regional bodies like the Organization of American States and Mercosur, Latin America's largest economic union.
Caracas and Washington
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Venezuela since 2005, targeting individuals and entities associated with the government. The sanctions intensified after Maduro's controversial re-election in 2018, which was marred by allegations of voter suppression and human rights abuses. The Trump administration, along with a coalition of Latin American countries, implemented "maximum pressure" sanctions aimed at ousting Maduro. These measures severely restricted Venezuela's access to U.S. financial markets and froze the assets of the state oil company, PDVSA.
In 2023, a potential thaw between the US and Venezuela emerged with the Barbados Agreement, which sought to promote dialogue between the Maduro government and the opposition in return for allowing U.S. companies like Chevron to resume oil operations in Venezuela. However, following violations of the agreement, sanctions were reimposed in April 2024. As of July 2024, there were indications that Maduro sought to resume negotiations with the U.S. Following the National Electoral Council’s announcement of the election result, the US said the results had been manipulated and did not reflect the will of the Venezuelan people. On July 30, after a call between US President Joe Biden and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva, they issued a joint statement on “the need for immediate release of full, transparent and detailed voting data”.
Caracas and Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin is among the few world leaders who congratulated Venezuelan President Maduro on his proclaimed victory in the Presidential election. Russia has been a pivotal ally for Venezuela since the early 2000s under Hugo Chávez, and the two countries enjoy a strategic partnership and robust political, military ties and economic relations. They are also profoundly opposed to US foreign policy.
Venezuela has generally always supported Russia's actions, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and opposed NATO's defensive measures. In exchange, Russian oil companies are engaged in major exploration projects for oil and mineral resources in Venezuela, and they have recently agreed to increase the pace and volume of their cooperation in the field of nuclear energy and oil production. Russia has also provided Venezuela with military hardware, including advanced weapons systems, and has supported Venezuela's military elite.
Russia has consistently provided diplomatic support to Venezuela, voicing concerns about external interference of the West and blocking sanctions and embargoes on the Latin American country. By maintaining relations with Venezuela, Russia is also able to prevent US interests in Latin America generally, as well as claiming to have a more substantial role in international security. For example, in February 2024, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov claimed to have arranged a meeting between Venezuela and Guyana to settle the territorial dispute over the Essequibo territory to form the basis for a constructive dialogue.
Caracas and Beijing
The ties between China and Venezuela are long-standing and significant. On July 29, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian congratulated Maduro, saying China will strengthen relations with Venezuela.
China has opposed the re-imposition of US sanctions on Venezuela, and remains one of the most important buyers of Venezuelan crude oil. Despite criticism, with the reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, China’s interest in Venezuelan oil is likely to increase. The sanctions make Venezuelan oil less expensive and reduce competition, presenting a more attractive opportunity for China. As the world’s largest importer of oil, China could benefit significantly from the lower prices and increased availability of Venezuelan crude oil.
China has provided Venezuela massive investments and loans through state-owned banks in exchange for oil, making it Caracas’ largest creditor and bilateral lender. In September 2023, President Maduro visited China and the two countries upgraded their relationship by signing an “all-weather strategic partnership” covering various sectors such as economy, trade, development, agriculture, and tourism. President Maduro expressed strong support for Chinese initiatives and international frameworks like the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, and the Global Security Initiative.
Venezuela is also the top purchaser of Chinese military hardware in Latin America, a relationship that deepened after the U.S. prohibited arms sales to Venezuela in 2006. Between 2006 and 2022, China exported around $629 million worth of weapons to Venezuela.
Caracas and Tehran
Iran and Venezuela, both under heavy U.S. sanctions, have forged a closer partnership, particularly in the oil sector. Iran has recently supplied Venezuela with gasoline and technical assistance to develop its oil industry, helping Venezuela circumvent some of the impacts of U.S. sanctions. However, economic challenges persist and Venezuela has had difficulties in meeting payment obligations to Iran.
Why the Netherlands should observe this election
The international community closely watched Venezuelan presidential elections, as the outcome could impact regional stability and global geopolitical dynamics. But with Maduro at the helm, at least for the foreseeable future, Venezuela’s stance in the world is unlikely to change.
The Dutch government warned about the interference of the geopolitical interests of third parties (U.S., China, Russia) on its border with the country. The Kingdom of the Netherlands shares its longest border with Venezuela, through the Dutch Caribbean islands—Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao.
The recurring socio-economic, political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela has led to a mass exodus of Venezuelans to other countries in the region and the US. This has acutely affected the Dutch ABC island too. Aruba, in particular, has become a significant destination for Venezuelan refugees, with Venezuelans making up about 15% of its population. With the maintenance of US sanctions on the country, the economic situation could become worse in the future.
In 2023, Venezuela and the Netherlands began to restore diplomatic ties, aiming to gradually reopen the borders that Maduro closed in February 2019. This closure was initially implemented to block humanitarian aid, which Maduro claimed was part of a plot to overthrow his government. Without a change of government, the tense relationship is likely to continue while Maduro is in power.
While the likelihood of a conflict between the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Venezuela is low, Maduro has shown he is willing to use conflict as a means to try and shore up support from the military. Maduro’s threats to annex Essequibo’s territory from Guyana in October 2023 demonstrates he is willing to restart territorial disputes with Venezuela’s neighbors. The Venezuelan elections are therefore important for the security of the Dutch Caribbean islands.
Edited by Chris Dalby, Director of World of Crime
