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Date Published: 01/02/2025
Location:Â North Kivu, DRC.
On Monday, 27/01/2025, the M23 rebel group announced it had captured Goma, a key city in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The takeover prompted hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis. Goma serves as a critical security and humanitarian hub, hosting thousands of displaced people who had previously fled conflict elsewhere.
The M23 is one of many armed groups operating in eastern DRC, competing for control over mineral-rich territories. The Congolese government and the United Nations have accused Rwanda of backing M23, with reports indicating the presence of Rwandan troops in Goma. On Sunday, January 26, DRC’s Foreign Minister declared that Rwanda’s military crossing into Congolese territory was a "declaration of war," further announcing that Kinshasa was severing all diplomatic ties with Kigali.
The situation is still developing. M23 rebels have seized control of Goma and they are reportedly moving rapidly south toward Bukavu. The DRC military has set up a defensive line on the road to Bukavu. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi has vowed a strong military response but refuses to negotiate directly with M23, insisting on engaging only with Rwanda. President Paul Kagame warned that Rwanda is ready for confrontation if necessary. The international community calls for a peaceful de-escalation of tensions. UN, EU, US, and China calling on Rwanda to withdraw from the DRC. The UK and Germany have threatened to cut aid to Rwanda over its alleged support for M23.
Further scenarios
Military Escalation. The Congolese army (FARDC), backed by Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces, launches a counteroffensive to reclaim Goma, resulting in heavy clashes. Rwanda officially deploys troops to reinforce M23, turning the conflict into a regional war involving multiple nations. Cross-border attacks escalate, with increased shelling between DRC and Rwanda, potentially drawing in Uganda and Burundi.
Prolonged stalemate. M23 consolidates control over Goma and southern areas but faces resistance near Bukavu. The DRC fails to dislodge M23, leading to a de facto partition of eastern Congo, similar to past conflicts. Diplomatic efforts intensify, but without a clear resolution, a prolonged stalemate leads to increased militia activity.
A peace agreement. Under mounting international pressure, Tshisekedi agrees to engage in direct talks with M23, mediated by Angola or an international body. A ceasefire is brokered, and M23 gains some political concessions. Regional tensions ease, and humanitarian aid flows resume, but the peace remains fragile. In the past, there have been numerous failures of previous deals and for an agreement to come into place, significant diplomatic pressure would be required.
Considering Tshisekedi’s stance and the DRC military’s recent actions (including cross-border shelling into Rwanda), the military escalation scenario seems more probable in the immediate future. However, if M23 successfully holds Goma and advances further south, Kinshasa may be forced into negotiations under duress in the coming months.
Impact on Resources and Trade
The DRC is one of the world’s most resource-rich nations, particularly in minerals like cobalt, coltan and gold, essential to the global technology supply chains. With the ongoing conflict, illegal mining and smuggling is likely to increase, with non-state armed groups using mineral wealth to fund their operations.Â
The conflict escalation could also lead to border closures and heightened insecurity which could reduce the movement of goods, affecting economies dependent on cross-border trade. Food prices have already risen in Goma, as food is scarce.
Humanitarian Impact
The civilian population is heavily affected by the ongoing conflict. The United Nations estimates that at least 700 people have been killed since Sunday 26/01. Over 500,000 people have already been displaced and this number could grow with an increase in the conflict's escalation. Refugee camps are also plagued by sexual violence, hunger, and disease, and hospital are overwhelmed and under equipped. Multiple human rights agencies call warring parties to prioritize civilian protection.