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Date: 10/10/2022. 2100hrs.
Location: Moldova, Black Sea.
Parties involved: Russian Government, Russian Navy, and Moldovan Government.
The Event:
At 0600hrs on 08/10/2022, the Crimean Bridge was critically damaged with explosives [Right Image.].
While the cause of the blast is unclear, it has rendered the road bridge and adjacent railway head unusable for Russian military logistics.
In retaliation, at 0800hrs on 10/10/2022, the Russian MOD fired volleys of guided rocket systems in Ukrainian cities, most notably Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Lviv [Left Image].
In order to hit Khmelnytskyi, the Russian Navy fired 3x Sea borne guided munitions from the black sea, which penetrated Moldovan Airspace.
While most of Moldovan Airspace has been closed since 24/02/2022, flights from international carriers to LUKK/Chisinau airport have been permitted access by Moldovan ATC.
Russian MOD announced later in the morning of 10/10/2022 that these rocket strikes, totaling 70+, were in retaliation to the Crimean Bridge attack.
Buildings housing prominent international entities such as the German Consulate, Samsung, and Kyiv’s thermal power plant were hit and geo-located within hours.
Analysis and implications:
The recent rocket attacks pose an immediate and deliberate attempt by the Russian MOD to destabilize the security of the airspaces overlapping the Black Sea.
Due to the civilian nature of the targets, it is likely that respect for International Conventions on Human Rights Laws/Laws of Armed Conflict will deteriorate further within this conflict.
Additional attacks by the Russian MOD are likely to occur in the following days to this intelligence report publication. Strikes are likely to occur with little prior warning and may penetrate Moldovan airspace again.
Retaliatory strikes by Ukrainian Forces may occur on key Russian targets in Crimea, Russian-occupied areas within Ukraine, and even within Russia’s borders.
Previously assumed “safe” areas within Ukraine for NGOs are likely to be considered fair targets from henceforth. Private businesses are likely to be caught in the crossfire or targeted deliberately too.
Concluding notes:
It is important for airlines to take note of these events in the Black Sea. Active planning, monitoring, and risk assessing are vital to ensure the safety of operations, people, assets, and reputation.
For private businesses and NGOs, it is important to take these recent events into account when considering their security profiles within the country. Hostile Environment Awareness Training [HEAT] is critical to mitigate the negative externalities of these events. For best results, first aid courses should also be considered.
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