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Written by Paula Boden
Indonesia faces severe hazards such as rising sea levels, extreme heat, and natural disasters. As a reaction, the Indonesian government has initiated mega-development projects, such as relocating the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara. However, these governance strategies are not always effective, especially for the least privileged. This, in turn, leads to radical Islamist and hard-line religious-conservative groups exploiting and utilizing the situational distress caused by climate change to infiltrate and recruit people for their cause. The risk of linked climate change/rising radicalism extends beyond Indonesia, likely affecting the broader ASEAN region. Consequently, for effective (inter)national and also regional cooperation, climate change needs to be recognized as an underlying risk for rising radicalism to successfully integrate preventive action into counter-radicalism strategies.
Introduction
Extreme heat, mass floods, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions in Indonesia cause an increase of mental stress, physical loss of homes and more deaths to come. Indonesia is facing an unprecedented catastrophe on multiple levels due to climate change. The link between climate change and (in)security has already been the focus of several investigations. Especially in the case of Indonesia, rising sea levels and extreme heat put the population at high risk of food and water scarcity, displacement, and weakening economic stability. Considering that hidden insecurities related to climate change such as mental distress and anxiety are added to the physical disappearance of land and homes, climate change can fuel the rise of religious radicalism.
With the President-elect Prabowo taking office in October 2024, the potential rise of hard-line religious radicalism in Indonesia needs to be considered more seriously. Prabowo, a former lieutenant general and in 2014 Jokowi’s presidential opponent, is feared to align with radical groups due to his past associations with religious hardliners.
The Islamic puritanism movement Hizbut-Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) uses climate-linked narratives to take advantage of grievances of people who are affected by climate change challenges. By picking up climate change in their Islamic-radical propaganda, HTI is successful in improving their ideological standing mostly in climate change-prone regions.
Indonesia’s current situation and its climate change challenges
Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous nation, with 275.5 million inhabitants and home to the third largest surviving area of tropical rainforests. The country is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and is listed as the 47th country most at risk of climate change hazard (out of 191). Main climate change risks posed to Indonesia's population are extreme heat stress, pollution, rapidly reducing water supplies, and food insecurity. The natural hazards hitting Indonesia are earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, cyclones, volcanic eruptions, and droughts. There have been several governmental attempts to tackle climate change-related security issues.
As a political reaction to the sinking capital Jakarta, President Joko Widodo announced several mega-development projects to tackle climate change. Widodo started relocating the capital to the new IbuKota Nusantara (Capital of the Archipelago) to Borneo island, building a completely new green Eco-Forest City from scratch. The estimated costs of the project lead up to US$45 billion. Nusantara is currently being built on more than 250,000 hectares of forest – around three times the size of Jakarta. Still, in comparison to the 10 million Jakartian citizens, the new capital will only initially host 500,000 citizens. The first relocation deadline for 1,800 civil servants for the new seat of government is in August 2024.
The current national strategy is called ‘2045 Golden Indonesia’ and marks Indonesia’s proclaimed independence from Dutch colonial rule on August 17, 1945. By this, Widodo follows a political stance of progress and development. He aims to showcase the rise of a middle-income nation to a high-income country resilient to climate change challenges. However, it is questionable to what extent Widodo’s mega-development visions will leverage effective climate protection. Especially after the national election early in 2024, environmentalists fear that the decade of deforestation that took place under Widodo could unleash a new ecological catastrophe of mining, coal burning, downstreaming, and deforestation. Further loss of forest will have serious impacts on climate change, not only in Indonesia but worldwide. Deforestation will be associated with more frequent droughts, massive heat waves, and severe sea level rise. This is a high risk, especially in Indonesia, where most of the population lives in coastal areas.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, 2022 & 2024 Wikimedia Commons
Indonesia is home to 50 to 70 million Indigenous people, which make up 18 to 25 percent of the total population. Deforestation, large-scale nickel mining, resource competition and tensions over land are a continuous threat to Indigenous people and their well-being. The construction of the new capital now exacerbates these social inequalities and abuses against Indigenous peoples. The Indonesian government offered small compensation if Indigenous communities were to relocate. However, several reported cases of human rights violations show that Indigenous people are being forcefully displaced and are under threat of losing their homes.
Such issues may be exacerbated once President-elect Prabowo Subianto will take office in October 2024. Activists and opposition fear further democratic backsliding. Human rights groups claim that Prabowo was involved in human rights violations in Timor-Leste in the late 1980s. Even though he confirmed to follow Widodo’s democratization efforts and development plans, Prabowo military background and his controversial past suggest that he might take a more centralized and controlled governmental stance.
His appointment would further increase the military’s involvement in domestic political affairs. There is also a chance for recurring political connections between religious Islamist hard-liners and Prabowo's government. Prabowo has past associations with hard-line Islamist groups. In the lead-up to the 2019 election, he appeared to be forming a populist-military-Islamist alliance. During this period, his allies allegedly played a key role in organizing mass protests against Jakarta’s Governor Basuki Purnama (known as Ahok), targeting him for his ethnicity and alleged blasphemy. These protests were led by Islamist groups such as Front Pembela Islam (FPI) – who call for violent jihad.
Indonesia’s standing in ASEAN region and internationally
Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia and a crucial player in peace and security issues in the region. Regarding climate change, current research highlights that four ASEAN member states are among the world’s highest committers of perpetuating global warming while also experiencing and facing the harshest climate change-related hazards and impacts. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, extreme heat is considered the most extreme physical risk.
On the international stage, Indonesia will likely continue to play an active role under President-elect Prabowo. Indonesia’s government is likely to present itself as the most green, sustainable and high-tech country in Southeast Asia. Officially, Indonesia already launched an Energy Compact and thereby joined a global community of member states who commit to the SDG7 and strong net-zero goals. Initially these goals were set to be reached until 2030 In more current speeches, Widodo set climate goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 32% below the business-as-usual by 2060.
Indonesia’s political challenge of radical Islamist groups
Indonesia’s counter-terrorism strategies have been partly successful in the past. As a reaction to the 2003 Bali Bombings, the counter-terrorism Special Detachment 88 or Densus 88 was formed. Densus 88 was equipped and trained by the US and Australia. In 2006, a Transnational Crime and Terrorism Task Force was established by the Indonesian Attorney General’s Office. Another national accomplishment was the creation of Indonesia’s Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) in 2010.
The focus of Indonesian deradicalization programs was to ensure that those under arrest did not re-engage with radical Islamist groups once they were released. Additionally, Indonesia has opened four prisons for high-risk terrorists. These major political activities against the violent Islamist discourse and against activism calling for a violent jihad have forced the radical religious-conservative Islamist groups to shift towards implementing the shari’a from grassroots and activist level.
Radical Islamist and religious-conservative groups have gained influence over politics since the late 2000s by organizing grassroot campaigns and charities as well as by forming a political party. In the Indonesian People’s Da’wah Party the terrorist organization Jamaah Islamiyah (JI) operated through its disguise. Up to 7,000 members work within government institutions and are spread across civil and religious organizations. Extremist Islamist groups in Indonesia have benefited from weak public institutions, consequently also building religious-oriented schools called Pesantren as well as instilling young people on social media. In 2022, Indonesia’s National Counter-Terrorism Agency (BNPT) revealed that 68 Pesantren are affiliated with JI. However, looking at the total estimated number of 30,000 Pesantrens in Indonesia, it’s important to note that the majority of Pesantrens, as the oldest educational institution rooted in Indonesia’s Muslim communities, carry the spirit of religious moderation promoting tolerant views of Islam.
Radicalism on the rise due to climate change?
Members and former activists of HTI support a climate narrative that legitimizes and supports a global caliphate. Figures show that young Indonesians perceive the climate crisis as a fundamental threat to their personal and national security. The majority of respondents of a national survey in 2021 (81%) think Indonesia must protect and preserve the environment even though it will slow down economic growth. Another 84% of respondents agree that action on climate change/crisis must be carried out immediately. The study shows that 52% are very concerned about environmental degradation, while 32% are very concerned about Islamist radicalism in politics. So, even though young Indonesians fear Islamist radicalism, talking about the most pressing environmental concerns seems to be working: by considering climate change in their Islamist-radical propaganda, HTI is successful in improving their ideological standing mostly in climate change-prone regions.
The Islamist involvement in politics from grassroot levels is not a new phenomenon – especially in Indonesia, extremist groups and sympathizers have set up decentralized charities. This way radical religious-conservative groups manage to infiltrate and propagate their radical visions without using violence or openly denouncing democratic governance. The misuse of charities and support mechanisms for their own hard-line religious cause is just another way of influencing the Indonesian youth and people affected by climate change.
With the President-elect Prabowo taking office in October 2024, the potential rise of hard-line religious radicalism in Indonesia needs to be considered more seriously. It is a possibility that radical Islamist groups will utilize the mega-development projects – issued by Widodo – which apparently only support already privileged Indonesian/ Nusantara citizens in their progress and development goals.
Due to the fact that the new capital Nusantara will not be able to host all 10 million Jakarta’s citizens, radical Islamist groups could get involved in relocation efforts for Jakartan citizens who are more underprivileged and disregarded by the government.
As the map shows below, locations for known radical Islamist groups and their grassroots level engagement are mainly based on Java island – which is mostly affected by climate change-related hazards. The map also highlights that the locations of Cirebon, Indramayu, Karawang, Bandung, and Tasikmalaya on West Java are quite close to Jakarta and, therefore, similarly at risk from extreme climate change challenges.
The infrastructure for radical Islamist engagement and activities already exists in West Java. On the one hand, this makes it easier from the outset for already active Islamist groups to convince vulnerable people and those threatened by climate change with their ideology and shari’a-based climate change narratives. On the other hand, it paves the way for new radical developments and hard-line religious-conservative groups to gain new members and radically exploit the grieving situations of helpless residents in West Java, Indonesia.
Map made by Paula Boden
Now, particularly with the new government under Prabowo, these tendencies towards Islamist radicalism are feared by Democrats and moderates across Indonesia. One scenario could be that Prabowo’s formerly close ties to hardline Islamists will be reactivated and revived. This would only worsen climate change challenges in Indonesia while fuelling Islamist activities in disaster response.
But Prabowo himself projects a more moderate image for his presidency, not least through his social media appearance on TikTok as ‘cuddly grandpa’ during the election campaigns. Prabowo taking office in October 2024 has therefore the power and tools to pave the way for positive political turnarounds: such as tackling tendencies towards radical Islamist movements at an early or at least still developing stage through engaging in preventive climate change action. This would make it more likely that Prabowo turns his back on solidifying with radical political parties and groups for good and engages more with his country’s agreement towards international climate change combat such as committing towards SDG 7 and regional cooperation of counter-radicalism.
Change could be achieved through more inclusive development projects that not only benefit the 500,000 citizens of Nusantara but all societal segments, including Indigenous communities and socially disadvantaged people in West Java. So, extensive preventive governmental action under Prabowo that recognizes a link between climate change and the rise of radicalism could lead to effective (inter)national counter-radicalism and counter-terrorism strategies.
Conclusion
Climate change is the one underlying risk for multiple security threats in Indonesia, where the population faces life-threatening climate-related risks and is simultaneously influenced by radical Islamist groups and their misuse of Islamic views. Climate change is not only a risk multiplier but an underlying risk for increased radicalism, especially in West Java. Vulnerabilities posed by climate change-related hazards are exacerbated.
The underlying risks of climate change also represent and incorporate a potential opportunity for Indonesia’s national and international standing. Through extensive preventive action, Indonesia, under President-elect Prabowo, could incorporate climate resilience and protection into counter-radicalism strategies to depict potential radical Islamist activities at an early stage. Additionally, by proactively addressing climate change challenges to simultaneously mitigate radicalism, the Indonesian government could collaborate with regional partners in ASEAN and could further manifest its progressive standing internationally. This approach would, for example, include a more inclusive stance on development that benefits all social layers and their economic and basic needs. Thereby, it would reduce the pool of potential recruits for radical Islamist and hard-line religious-conservative groups.
Profile
Paula Boden is a Freelance Journalist with a main focus on migration and climate crisis. She has years of professional experience in political education and Project Management. Currently, she pursues her MSc degree in Security Risk Management at the University of Copenhagen where she specializes in OSINT-research and Intelligence.