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Written by Arianna Lucà, Jacob Dickinson, Iris de Boer, Kevin Heller, Sara Frisan
Russia-Ukraine: Russia launched its largest sustained drone attacks against Ukraine, while Ukraine continues to strike targets inside Russia.
Israel: The conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthi is going into a new phase.
Myanmar: Large scale offensive from pro-democracy and ethnic armed forces make significant gains with the arrival of the first conscripts into the Myanmar military junta.
Sudan: Territorial gains by the RSF in Sudan’s southeast. HRW reported high levels of sexual violence against women and girls committed by the RSF as well as the SAF.
Mali: Following major losses of Malian soldiers and Wagner Group fighters in large-scale clashes, the government cuts ties with Ukraine for allegedly supporting the rebels.
Somalia: Increasing threat from Islamic State and Al-Shabaab, posing new challenges for Somali Security forces as UA peacekeeping mission will withdraw in December 2024.
Nigeria: Nationwide protests over the soaring cost of living and economic hardship turned violent in Nigeria.
Mexico: The arrests of Mexican Sinaloa cartel’s drug lords could trigger further violence and instability in the country.
Bangladesh: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and new elections have been called with General Waker, an Army Chief leading an interim government.
DRC: Amid escalating fighting between Congolese army and M23 rebels, DRC and Rwanda agreed for a ceasefire.
Kenya: As violent anti-government protests against President Ruto persist, concerns grow over police violence and the economic repercussions of instability in Kenya.
Venezuela: Deadly protests erupted in the aftermath of July 28 Venezuelan presidential elections, as Maduro was declared winner in a contested and likely fraudulent vote.
China-Taiwan: The PRC pressures other states to not attend Taiwan’s diplomatic initiatives and Taiwan holds annual military exercises.
Conflicts, July 2024
Russia-Ukraine
In early July, Russia managed to gain territory in the area of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, while Ukraine managed to make small gains on other parts of the on the eastern front. Fighting also continued in the Kharkiv region, where it was reported that Russia used wounded soldiers on the frontline. Ukraine succeeded in regaining some ground lost in the north with the support from the Ukrainian Air Force. In addition, fighting took place in the Zaporizhia region and on the southern bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast.
In July, Russia launched its largest sustained drone attacks towards Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, targeting civilian and critical infrastructure. Russia launched 90 drones at civilian targets across Ukraine earlier this month, particularly in Kyiv, with one attack targeting the main children’s hospital, killing over 30 people. Ukraine managed to strike targets inside Russia on an almost daily basis, including military facilities. In late July, Ukraine succeeded in striking the ferry port that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland and in early August a Russian submarine sank due to a Ukrainian strike.
NATO allies had pledged more aid for Ukraine as a new deal suggested that Ukraine is on a path to membership. At the end of July, Kyiv received several F-16 fighter jets from the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway which are hoped to allow the Ukrainian air force to strike further into Russian territory and defend against Russian glide bombs. On August 1, a major prisoner swap between Russia and the West took place, involving people from seven different countries. The swap has been the result of months of negotiations and has been mediated by Türkiye.
Israel
The conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthi has gone into a new phase in July 2024. After Israel presumably killed Hamas political leader Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, on the day of the inauguration of the new Iranian president, tensions have flared in the Middle East. Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the death of Haniyeh and has formally declared that it will attack Israel. Meanwhile, Israel also managed to kill the most high ranking Hezbollah military commander in Beirut on the same day Haniyeh was killed in Iran. This right hand man of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, called Shukr, was known to have been involved in dozens of terrorist attacks including the attack on the American embassy in Beirut in 1983 which killed hundreds of US Marines. Israel held him responsible for the deadly attack on a Druze village on July 27 killing 12 children who were playing football. Iran is preparing to attack Israel with the help of its proxies in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi in Yemen are all well funded and supplied by Iran and it is reasonable to assume that they will all be involved in a multifront attack on Israel.
Meanwhile, the IDF actions in Gaza in July were focussed on neutralizing Hamas command structure across Khan Yunis mostly. Several large raids on Hamas compounds were conducted and several high ranking Hamas terrorists were killed. The IDF also uncovered several large tunnels leading into Egypt. These tunnels were large enough for trucks to drive through and were probably used to transport weapons and hostages in and out of Gaza.
The fate of the Israeli hostages is uncertain and negotiations on their release have stalled with the death of Haniyeh. Several bodies of killed hostages have been found and returned to Israel in July 2024.
Myanmar
The Brotherhood Alliance, a mix of three ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces, made substantial gains against the military junta in July. On July 8, the Arakan Army (AA) seized the Thandwe Airport after heavy fighting in Rakhine State in a major blow to the military. The UN has reported that the Arakan Army and the military have conducted human rights violations against the minority Muslim Rohingya community.
The end of a Chinese negotiated ceasefire in June has led to more offensives against the military junta in the north eastern Shan State. On 26 July, the ethnic Chinese armed group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) reported that it had captured a key regional commercial and military command headquarters in the city of Lashio after a month of siege. The fall of Lashio is significant as it reduces the junta’s ability to stage a renewed assault on the territory it has lost in Shan State or re-establish control over the lucrative Myanmar-China border area. This followed another announcement by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) that they had gained control over a ruby-mining center to the west of Lashio. The alliance between these groups and the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) have so far remained intact and are able to push the military out.
However, there are indications that the junta is halting several offensives in Sagiain and Kayin, and recaptured a key city in the Kayah State. It has stalled the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). The military’s unpopular conscription order will produce another 15,000 soldiers by the end of 2024. The military has restarted its defense industries by maintaining its air force and conducting airstrikes more than ever. If the opposition forces fail to stay together to defeat the military in common cause, or the military junta maintain its ability to wage war, then the civil war will become worse in the near future.
Sudan
While the government supported Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are at war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan's government accepted an invitation for a new round of peace talks in Geneva sponsored by the U.S. in late July. However, General Burhan who is leading the SAF later stated that the SAF would not join talks as Burhan survived a drone strike while visiting an army base in eastern Sudan. The RSF has denied any responsibility for the attack.
In July, the RSF continued its territorial gains in Sennar state and took control of a majority of cities in Sennar as well as some SAF bases. In early July, the RSF also succeeded in capturing the city of al-Meiram in West Kordofan. It is reported that the RSF is establishing civil administrations in the captured territories to weaken the control of local governments. According to the UN, the fighting in Sennar displaced over 151 thousand people from their homes.
The humanitarian situation in Sudan has worsened as food insecurity is increasing as Sudan is currently experiencing lean season, which normally takes place from June to September. On August 5, the Sudanese government denied famine in the Zamzam refugee camp in north Darfur despite findings by a global food monitor. In late July, heavy rains and floods took place in the Kassala province in Southern Sudan, damaging multiple refugee camps. On July 28, Human Rights Watch released a worrying report documenting an intense degree of sexual violence by both the RSF and SAF targeting women and girls in Sudan. In addition, it was reported that the fighting parties have targeted health facilities and staff. Earlier in June, Doctors Without Borders released a similar report. It is estimated by the United Nations that over 10.7 million people have been internally displaced in Sudan since the start of the war in April 2023.
Alerts, July 2024
Mali
In early July 2024, the military rulers of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso signed a treaty establishing a confederation called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and formalized their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Malian President Goïta was named as the first leader of the AES. The separatist confederation has an anti-ECOWAS and anti-Western stance. It confirms the military juntas' alignment with non-Western powers like Russia, Iran, and China. In July 2024, Mali signed new cooperation agreements with Russia and discussed plans for a nuclear power plant. Moreover, domestically, tensions are escalating between the military junta and the opposition. Despite the government lifting the three-month ban on political party activities and the call for national dialogue, on July 15, several opposition parties announced a boycott of consultations with the government, denouncing political repression and arbitrary detention of opposition figures.
The presence in Mali of about 1,000 troops of the Russian private military group Wagner, who are responsible for atrocities against civilians, has been confirmed since 2021. In July 2024, clashes between the Malian army, supported by Wagner's Russian fighters, and Tuareg rebels intensified in the north of the country on the border with Algeria. Large-scale fighting was reported from July 25 to July 28. The rebels gained significant wins and confirmed the killing of 84 Wagner mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers. Following the fighting, arguably Wagner's deadliest defeat, the spokesperson of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR) claimed that the Tuareg rebels had received the necessary information for a successful military operation against the Russian armed group. Although Ukraine denied its support for the rebels, on August 4, the Malian government cut all diplomatic ties with Kyiv for alleged involvement in the rebel attack. Moreover, an Al-Qaeda affiliate claimed the killing of 10 soldiers and 50 Wagner’s mercenaries in northern Mali.
Somalia
The threat of Islamic State in Somalia is growing as IS increased its activities in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia. In May 2024, the US and the Somali National Army (SNA) conducted an airstrike and attempted to target the leader of IS in Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin. However, the airstrike did not succeed in eliminating Mumin. It is also believed that IS in Somalia has experienced an influx of fighters from other countries in the region, including some top IS members. This would strengthen the power of IS within the region and its ability to support global IS activities. Somalia’s security forces are also dealing with the threat from the Al-Qaeda affiliated insurgency Al-Shabaab, and intensified its operations in the southern part of the country. Al-Shabaab, who has been contesting the government for over 17 years, is known for its deadly terrorist attacks all around Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu. On August 3, Mogadishu has experienced an attack by an Al-Shabaab suicide bomber and gunmen killing 37 people. Somalia’s security forces are currently supported by the African Union peacekeeping force, but its peacekeepers are expected to withdraw in December 2024. This has increased worries about Al-Shabaab further expanding control in the country. In addition, it was reported by ACLED on 31 July that inter-clan fighting has also risen since February 2024. Authorities blamed Al-Shabaab for influencing this inter-clan fighting.
Nigeria
Hundreds of people took to the streets in Abuja, Lagos, and other major Nigerian cities to protest economic hardship, unsustainable living costs, and bad governance. Nigeria is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades, with inflation above 34 percent, rising prices of primary goods, and a dramatic increase in the population below the poverty line. Attempts to revive the economy under President Tinubo, who has been in office since May 2023, including the partial suspension of fuel and electricity subsidies and devaluation of the national currency, have led to rising fuel and other goods prices. Nigerian security forces have violently suppressed previous protests. Amnesty International reported the killing of 13 protesters, although authorities put the death toll at 7, and the arrest of at least 50 journalists. Activists and protesters denounce the use of excessive force by police. About 700 protesters have been arrested. On August 4, President Tinubo called for an end to the protests, promising to create opportunities for dialogue. Nevertheless, it is likely that the protests, expected to last until August 10, 2024, will continue in the coming days. Further clashes between protesters and police and an escalation of violence cannot be ruled out.
Bangladesh
The student-led protests in Bangladesh against an unpopular quota system turned violent in late July. The Awami League, under the direction of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the security forces, clamped down fiercely on the protesters, imposing a curfew, shutting off access to the internet and employing arbitrary detentions. The total number of over 200 people dead is higher than the single digits estimated by the authorities. The Awami League blamed the protests on ‘outside forces’ and the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP).
The protests continued for another week of intense clashes. At the beginning of August, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina unexpectedly resigned as protests broke into her former residence and fled the country. As the daughter of the leader of Bangladesh’s independence movement in 1971, she was frequently arrested and came to power as a pro-democracy candidate against the military government. However, according to critics, her government oversaw the repression of opposition parties, clamping down on internet freedom, and widespread corruption. Her departure, potentially to New Delhi, is a demonstration of her close ties with the Indian government, who see her administration as a beacon of stability in the unstable northeastern Manipur region in the northeast of the country.
The new interim government, led by Army Chief General Waker-us-Zaman, announced that new elections will take place with the engagement of the opposition parties and that an inquiry will be held into the deaths of protesters from the authorities. The president of Bangladesh, Mohammed Shahabuddin, ordered the release of student protesters. There is likely to be more instability as some rioting elements continue. The compromises reached by the opposition parties, the Army Chief and the timing of the next elections will be crucial in seeing how the situation will develop.
Mexico
. On July 25, Mexican drug lord Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López, son of “El Chapo,” were arrested in Texas, after disembarking from a plane. El Mayo is one of the most important traffickers in Mexican history, co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel with the former kingpin “El Chapo”, while Guzmán López inherited his father's cartel faction. Their arrests, a major coup for US authorities, were conducted without Mexico's knowledge and could trigger divisions within the Sinaloa cartel. This instability might benefit the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), long-time rival of the Sinaloa cartel. The Mexican military deployed forces in the Sinaloa state to avoid escalation of violence. While the arrests are a win for US law enforcement, they could lead to increased violence in Mexico, due to the resulting power vacuum.
Updates, July 2024
Democratic Republic of Congo
Despite the humanitarian truce announced by the US on July 4, and extended until August 3, clashes between the Congolese army and M23 rebels have not stopped in the eastern part of the country, especially in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. M23 attacks and fighting have been reported in Lubero and Masisi territories, North Kivu, aggravating the dire displacement crisis. Nearly 2500 Congolese, including 98 police officers, crossed the border with Uganda in the past few days, fleeing from the escalation of violence. In recent weeks, IS-affiliated ADF attacks have also increased in North Kivu province. On July 13, at least 70 people were killed in an escalation of intercommunal violence in Kinsele, about 100 kilometers east from Kinshasa, fuelling concerns over rising ethnic violence in the country.
On July 30, the foreign minister of DRC and Rwanda signed a ceasefire deal during a meeting held in Angola. The ceasefire started on August 4. While the UN and the international community welcomed the agreement and the possibility of halting the hostilities, it is still unclear which parties agreed to the ceasefire as the Rwanda-backed M23 militias were not signatories to the accord. Escalating tensions between DRC and Rwanda had slowed the withdrawal of MONUSCO peacekeepers, requested in 2023 by the Congolese government. On July 14, the DRC foreign minister said that the departure of UN forces is not viable as long as there are Rwandan troops in the country. Kinshasa has long accused Rwanda of supporting the M23, accusations denied by Rwanda. Moreover, in early July, the UN provided evidence of Ugandan army support to the M23 in eastern DRC. Uganda denied any involvement with the militia.
Kenya
In July 2024, Kenya experienced an unprecedented wave of nationwide protests. Triggered by a controversial proposed financial bill and tax hikes, protesters argue the measures disproportionately affect the poorest. They are demanding better living conditions and President Ruto's resignation, blaming him for the deaths and violence against protesters in recent weeks. The demonstrations, which began in mid-June as peaceful, took a violent turn due to the repressive response by police forces. According to human rights organizations, Kenyan security forces used excessive force toward the protestors, resulting in the deadliest anti-tax protests in the history of the country. At least 50 people were in the clashes, while over 650 people have been arbitrarily detained. To halt the protests, President Ruto withdrew $2.7 billion in tax increases and fired almost his entire cabinet, appointing members of the main opposition party to the cabinet
Despite the concessions to the protesters, anti-government protests seeking the president's resignation will likely continue throughout August 2024. Anti-government rallies have already been announced for the coming weeks outside government buildings in major Kenyan cities. The violent developments in Kenya are having dramatic economic and political consequences. The UN, the US, and the EU have called for dialogue and restraint on all sides. International observers are closely monitoring reported suspected abuses and violations by Kenyan security forces, which already have a reputation for brutality and corruption.
Venezuela
On July 28, Venezuela held presidential elections marked by intimidation and obstacles for the opposition. Despite independent polls predicting a major victory for opposition candidate González Urrutia, the government-controlled National Electoral Authority (CNE) declared Maduro the winner. While Russia, China, and allied countries like Cuba and Bolivia congratulated Maduro, most of the international community called for full release of the voting results, which the CNE has so far failed to do. On August 1, the US recognized Venezuela’s opposition candidate as the election’s winner.
Protests erupted immediately after the results were announced, with demonstrators tearing down statues of Hugo Chávez and demanding political and civil freedoms. Security forces responded using tear gas and rubber bullets. On August 3, massive demonstrations organized by the opposition took place nationwide. Clashes with security forces resulted in thousands of arrests and at least 20 deaths. The UN expressed concerns over the allegations of human rights’ violations. The Organization of American States (OAS) asked the ICC and ICJ to investigate Maduro's protests’ crackdown. Maduro launched an investigation against opposition leaders, accusing them of inciting the insurrection. González and Machado called on security forces to “stand by the people” and stop their support for Maduro’s regime.
Venezuela is currently experiencing a deepening political crisis, with growing regional and international concern over escalating protests, security, human rights and democracy in the country. More protests and repression are expected. Venezuela's neighbors fear a new mass exodus due to rising violence. Peru, Panama, Brazil and Chile increased border security.
China-Taiwan
China and Taiwan relations in July began with Taiwan announcing that China’s Coast Guard had seized a Taiwanese fishing boat in the Taiwan Strait on 3 July claiming that they were illegally fishing in China’s waters. In a turn toward minor positive relations on maritime issues, on 30 July, China and Taiwan reached a deal over fisherman’s deaths in February 2024.
There were also reports from six countries saying that Chinese diplomats had been pressuring governments to not attend a special conference on the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC). The meetings were held in Taipei and focussed on how democracies should deal with the threat from Beijing. Members of the IPAC have been subject to cyberattacks and sanctions. The Taiwanese military conducted annual military exercises, called Han Kuang based on Taiwan, and the islands of Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu simulating an attack from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army from the PRC.
Taiwan’s ties with Japan, the Philippines and Australia have become closer in July. Japan released a new defense paper and warned of China’s rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with possible military action involving mainland Japan. More collaboration has been announced with the US, with the US stationing a three-star general in Japan for the first time since the 1990s. The US also announced further military funding for the Philippines, including an additional $500 million for improving maritime defense and intelligence sharing capabilities due to shared concerns over China’s actions in the South China Sea.
The US presidential election also implicated Taiwan in July. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said that Taiwan should pay for the protection of the island from China. After leaving office in 2020, he was the preferred candidate instead of Biden because he strengthened ties with the island for the first time since the US severed the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979. Biden’s presidency has seen closer ties with the island, stating on several occasions that he would defend Taiwan if attacked. Trump’s comments on the US-Taiwan relationship led to the Taiwan’s premier saying that Taiwan was grateful for US support and was working to build its own self-defense capabilities.
About the authors
Arianna Lucà
Arianna is a new intern at Dyami, covering the role of Research Intelligence Analyst to enrich her background knowledge in International Relations with topics involving security and conflict. She holds an MA in International Relations from Leiden University and an LLM in European Criminal Justice from Utrecht University. During her academic career, she has volunteered for different NGOs, mainly Amnesty International, and Emergency and ActionAid, embracing humanitarian and conflict security causes, and addressing issues like famine and lack of security in different regions of the world. With Dyami, she is contributing to joint publications, writing articles, and keeping up to date with key regional developments.
Jacob Dickinson
Jacob studied Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has traveled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes the geopolitics of oil and industrial upgrading in the electronics global value chain. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security.
Iris de Boer
Iris works as a Global Intelligence Analyst at Dyami, leveraging her background in Human Geography. Additionally, Iris holds an MA degree in Conflict Studies and Human Rights from Utrecht University, specializing in conflict analysis, peace processes, and geopolitics. Her MA thesis delved into the securitization of the war in Ukraine by the Heads of State, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, and Ministers of Defense of the Netherlands and Poland. Within Dyami, Iris is actively involved in security risk management, travel security, and geopolitical analysis. Her enthusiasm for addressing topics in international security extends across a diverse spectrum of countries and regions
Kevin Heller
Kevin has over a decade of experience in the world of counter-terrorism as a consultant, trainer, and analyst. His background is in military Close Quarter Battle/Combat and Krav Maga for Military and Law Enforcement agencies. As a Global Intelligence Analyst, he writes Intel Briefs on conflict zones and terrorism.He has extensive knowledge of conflicts, politics, and other events happening in the Middle East. Kevin also has a background in Journalism and International Affairs/Conflict Studies.
Sara Frisan
Sara works at Dyami as a Geopolitical Intelligence Analyst, leveraging her background in Peace and Conflict Studies. Sara joined Dyami after completing her MA in Conflict Studies and Human Rights at Utrecht University and held an MA degree in International Sciences and Peace Studies. During her academic career, she conducted research in South America, primarily Colombia, on the dynamics of collaboration and resistance between civilians and non-state armed groups in violent settings. In her previous internship at the investigative think-tank InSight Crime, Sara developed some expertise on transnational organized crime and political-criminal alliances.
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