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Executive Summary
The past two months have shown the risk of (last minute) military exercises, which by design or on accident hinder aviation.
Digital interference continues to hinder aviation over many parts of the world, with interference areas now showing up over Asia.
Quickly escalating conflicts or unrest have shown how quick security situations on the ground can change, and how these impact the operations of (international) airports.
Global
1.1. Digital Interference
The level of digital interference continues to be problematic for aviation. However, for the first time in months, no new forms of interference have surfaced. This allows operators to adapt more and more to the status quo, and get used to combat different forms of interference when possible.
1.2. Drug trafficking
Drug trafficking continues to be a relevant risk in any form of aviation, including business/private aviation. This is especially the case in Latin America and India. Whereas India has a strongly booming trafficking activity, in Latin America the established market has shown an increased interest in using business/private style aircraft for their operations. In the Western world, airport and airline employees get arrested every now and then for being involved in drug trafficking.
1.3. Human trafficking
Human trafficking is a lingering threat to business aviation, as the privacy over commercial aviation makes the operation easier. Other factors that come with operating business aircraft also count as a benefit to traffickers.
1.4. Military exercises
The amount of military exercises around the globe are on a rise. With these come last minute or even ad hoc airspace closures, whether intended by the executing nation(s) or not.
Europe
2.1. Climate activism
An increase in climate activism is expected as the summer approaches. Both climate activism actions as well as responses to actions have increased in severity.
2.2. Digital Interference
Russian digital interference has not resided in the past months. In fact, it is active in such a way that a couple of flights had to return to their departing airport, as their navigation systems became too unreliable.
Middle East
3.1 . Digital interference
The region that is still in the lead when it comes to digital interference variations. Most variations of interference can be found here, and there’s no sign of stopping.
3.2. Overflight Risks
An array of countries in the region provide an overflight risk. These come from both state- as well as non-state actors. Not taking these risks seriously can have serious consequences.
3.3. Israel - Hamas war
A severe escalation in the war happened at the hands of Iran, causing last minute airspace closures over multiple countries, heavily disrupting traffic. This is a great example of how fast airspace situations can change over a country, even if not (directly) involved in a conflict.
3.4. Rising conflict Israel - Hezbollah
The tensions between Israel and Hezbollah continue to rise, as the latter continues its actions against Israel.
Asia
4.1. Overflight of Myanmar
The intensity of the conflict keeps increasing. With the junta forces increasingly using aircraft against the rebel forces, the need for anti-air weapons increases for the latter. This is a major conflict, situated right under and very near busy air routes, which barely gets any attention in most media sources.
4.2. Taiwan tensions
A military drill was conducted by China, in a response to a statement made by the Taiwanese president. This drill fully surrounded the island nation, triggering the latter to (partially) set up its defenses.
4.3. Digital interference
A new interference region emerged recently. GPS jamming has been reported over the sea west of the Korean peninsula.
Africa
5.1. Overflight risks
An array of countries in the region provide an overflight risk. These come from both state- as well as non-state actors. Not taking these risks seriously can have serious consequences.
North America
6.1 Gang violence in Haiti
The gang violence in Haiti is ongoing, and [MTPP] airport has been a target of the violence before. An international intervention mission is struggling to start up, and a return of the peace seems far away.
South America
7.1. Drug trafficking
Drug trafficking is a continuous threat in this region. Any operator of business/private aircraft should be aware of the possible implications of the drug trafficking industry on their operation.
Oceania
8.1. New Caledonia
Unrest started on the island on the 15th of May. With chaos establishing, the international airport [NWWW] was quick to shut down. France, who is the owner of the island, responded by deploying forces to the island. The airport has not reopened yet.
ForecastCurrent conflicts and unrest are unlikely to calm down in the coming months. Unique in this situation is the tension between Iran and Israel, which is likely to be of a reduced intensity for a couple of months after the confrontation in April, which ended up with both parties satisfied about the results of their actions. East Asia is vulnerable to an increase in digital interference, most likely originating from China and North-Korea. |
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