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Executive Summary
Following up on the last two months, GPS interference has picked up around the Baltics and Black Sea. This causes aviation risks, where pilots need to be prepared thoroughly.
Airport activities in Europe have been disrupted by (climate) protests.
Tensions in the Middle East have increased leading to more overflight risks near the Northern and Southern Israeli border.
Tensions in Ecuador have increased leading to more drug trafficking via business/private aviation.
Global
1.1. Digital Interference
Digital interference is possibly the most common threat pilots face at the moment. The methods of interfering have grown way past the simple GPS jamming, and are found in more places in the world. Recently the skies over Eastern Europe and the Baltic have seen a surge in interference, but reports of fictitious ATC commands is a new form of interference which deserves attention as well.
1.2. Drug trafficking
Drug trafficking continues to be a relevant risk in any form of aviation, including business/private aviation. This is especially the case in Latin America and India. Whereas India has a strongly booming trafficking activity, in Latin America the established market has shown an increased interest in using business/private style aircraft for their operations.
1.3. Human trafficking
Human trafficking is a lingering threat to business aviation, as the privacy over commercial aviation makes the operation easier. Other factors that come with operating business aircraft also count as a benefit to traffickers.
1.4. Wildlife trafficking
Due to the increased security in common trafficking hotspots such as South Africa and Tanzania, the wildlife trafficking routes are changing. One of the new hotspots is Addis Ababa Bole Int. airport in Ethiopia. While commercial aviation is the more known method of smuggling animals, business/private aviation could benefit such operations, and should be considered as a potential method.
Europe
2.1. Climate activism
In Europe climate activists have a strong focus on business/private aviation. With the weather improving, protests and demonstrations are planned for many airports in Europe. Recently some actions in the Netherlands against business/private aviation were prevented by the authorities’ handling of the protestors.
2.2. Strikes and other protests
A rising trend in strikes by airport employees is seen in Europe. These strikes have so far stopped operations at 11 airports, causing the cancellation or delay of 1.100 flights.
2.3. Digital Interference
The skies over Europe have seen a surge in digital interference originating from Russia. The focus of this interference is mostly in Northern and Central Europe.
2.4. Overflight risks
Ukraine is trying to work towards the partial reopening of their airspace. As the war in the country is still ongoing, this plan brings a lot of security challenges.
Middle East
3.1 . Digital interference
Seemingly the epicenter of digital interference development, the Middle East has produced a collection of methods of interference. For any pilot operating in or near the region, these methods and how to counter them should be known.
3.2. Overflight Risks
Together with the ongoing conflicts and unrest in the Middle East, a group of countries present overflight risks. This can range from digital interference to anti-air weapons.
3.3. Israel - Hamas war
The war between Israel and Hamas has caused several airspace restrictions. However, now that the war is being fought out in the South of Gaza the direct threat to LLBG has reduced. On the other hand, the situation in Northern Israel has increased the risk to civilian traffic.
3.4. Rising conflict Israel - Hezbollah
The tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been rising since the start of Israel’s war with Hamas. As the situation may escalate, any aviation in, over and near Lebanon may be at risk of accidental targeting.
Asia
4.1. Overflight of Myanmar
As the situation in Myanmar continues, the chances of rebel forces gaining access to serious anti-air systems through capture increases. Such a situation would instantly provide a threat to any aviation flying over or near Myanmar.
4.2. Pilot held hostage in West Papua (Indonesia)
The situation of the hostage pilot in West Papua is still not resolved. Where at the start of the year developments seemed promising, no results have been achieved yet.
4.3. Caucasus tensions
The situation in the southern caucasus is slowly improving, but tensions linger. For every step in the right direction, there seems to be high-tension moments with the risk of escalation.
Africa
5.1. Overflight risks
Numerous countries in Africa bring an overflight risk and different mitigating measures. Anyone operating over Africa, especially the Sahel region and parts of the horn of Africa, should be aware which country brings what risk, and how to adequately operate around these risks.
5.2. Situation Nigeria / Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali
Rising political tension between Nigeria and its northern neighbors have resulted in overflight bans being issued. The bans have been lifted, but awareness of the situation is needed for operators to be prepared for possible last minute changes in airspace authorizations.
5.3. ATC interference near Somalia
More incidents of ATC interference have been reported in the northern Mogadishu airspace, potentially caused by Somaliland. False information comes from Hargeisa, Somaliland, VHF frequency 132.5 and HF 11300.
North America
There were no significant events in North America in the months of February and March.
South America
7.1. Drug trafficking
Drug smuggling from Ecuador to North America has picked up, because of the war between the Ecuadorian government and drug cartels. Cartels continue to use private aircraft for drug trafficking throughout the continent. Criminal organizations use old aircraft for these flights because a large number of aircraft are destroyed after only a small number of trafficking flights.
Oceania
There were no significant events in Oceania in the months of February and March.
Forecast
GPS interference will likely continue to be deployed as a military strategy by various state actors. The tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are rising, resulting in growing risks to overflights. In case of escalation, measures need to be taken such as avoiding Lebanese and (again) Israeli airspace and possibly the surrounding countries and Eastern Mediterranean.
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