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Date: 08/09/2023
Where:
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Who’s involved:
Armenian government, Azeri government, Russian government, Turkish government
What happened?
Azerbaijan has been mobilizing a significant military force since 06/09/2023 to the border with Armenia. Specifically, this appears to be the case near the southern end of the border with Armenia. This all comes after progression during peace talks between the countries have ground to a halt. Additionally, Azeri state media repeatedly has depicted Armenia as ‘wester-Azerbaijan’.
Analysis:
The chance of full-scale conflict between the two nations is likely, but not guaranteed. The goal of Azerbaijan for such a conflict is likely to connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakchivan. This would provide Azerbaijan with a direct land connection to its closest ally, Turkey. This would mean that Azerbaijan’s goal for the potential conflict would be to annex the south of Armenia.
There is a small chance that the current troop buildup is used as a political move, to try and influence certain decisions in the ‘peace’ talks between the two countries.
If a full-scale conflict breaks out in the region, air travel will be severely affected, as it would be unsafe to travel anywhere near the territories of Armenia or Azerbaijan. This would close yet another option for commercial aviation between Europe and Asia.