Date: September 10, 2024
Who’s involved: Al Qaeda, ISIS/ISIL/Daesh/ISKP/ISS, Al Shabaab, Haqqani network, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslim (JNIM) and others.
Jihadist-based terrorism has been on the world map since the late second part of the twentieth century but gained notoriety due to the Al Qaeda attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. And even though other forms of terrorism, like White Nationalism-inspired terrorism, have grown exponentially in the West, Jihadist-inspired terrorism represents a global challenge. According to several studies, in 2023, the epicenter of Jihadist terrorism seems to have shifted away from the Middle East and to the Central Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa, with Islamic State (IS) and Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) being the most active terrorist organizations.
According to the Global Terrorism Index, socio-economic factors such as unemployment, military expenditure, lack of confidence in the media and governmental institutions, and lower inequality-adjusted life expectancy are strongly associated with an increase in terrorism. Jihadist groups tend to recruit people in countries where there is a high resentment against the government and where the socio-economic conditions are very poor. It is worth noting that people in countries impacted by climate change are also vulnerable to terrorist recruitment; in Mali, terrorist groups have exploited growing tensions between herders and farmers to recruit followers, and in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has exploited water shortages in the country.
Most influential Jihadist terrorist groups active in 2024
Islamic State (IS) (also known as Daesh, IS in the Levant, IS in Khorasan Province, IS in the Sahel and many other sub-groups)
The Islamic State (IS) is a Sunni extremist group that emerged as an Al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq and Syria in 1999. Following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, IS participated in the Iraqi insurgency. In 2014, the group declared itself a worldwide caliphate. IS adheres to a global jihadist ideology, following an anti-Western interpretation of Islam and promoting violence against those who do not align with their ideology. Although the original aim of IS was to establish a Salafist-oriented Islamic state spanning Iraq, Syria, and other areas of the Levant, it then expanded into other parts of the world.
IS uses affiliate groups to promote its ideology, including the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK) in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), which operates in the Sahel region. The group has grown interest in the areas of Mali and Niger, where it is expanding its control driven by the security vacancy created by the withdrawal of UN and French military forces.
Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM)
JNIM was formed in 2017 in the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa as a coalition of Salafi-jihadist insurgent groups. Since its emergence, JNIM has expanded across the Central Sahel, committing acts of violence against civilians, local security forces, and counterterrorism operations, including international militaries and UN peacekeepers. In 2023 alone, the group was responsible for more than a thousand deaths.
JNIM tries to incite Muslims to oppose oppression, expel occupying powers from the Sahel region, and implement Islamic governance, and the organization’s leaders have declared France and allied countries as enemies. Counterterrorism efforts against JNIM over the years have not succeeded at expelling the group from the countries affected by their actions. JNIM operates within existing conflict zones, and most of its attacks are targeted against the military. However, the largest increase in targeted deaths occurred amongst the civilian population, with the number of civilian casualties from JNIM attacks being 416 in 2023.
Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda is probably the most well-known militant Islamist group that has been active for over 40 years. Founded by Osama bin Laden in the late 1980s in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda is mostly known for carrying out the attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, but has a wide range of devastating attacks across multiple continents to its name.
The organization began as a logistical network to support Muslims fighting against the Soviet Union during the Afghan war. On several occasions, the group has declared war on the United States, Israel, European countries, and Arab leaders who are seen as collaborating with the West. After the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011, Al Qaeda seemed to have splintered and lost some of its power to groups like ISIS and others. But with the reinstallment of the Taliban government in Afghanistan in 2021, Al Qaeda has been able to restructure and reinvent itself.
Osama Bin Laden’s son, Hamza, who was believed to have been killed in 2019 in Iran, took over the reins of power in the organization in 2024. Al Qaeda is now considered to be a renewed threat to the West and Arab states again. Experts believe Al Qaeda could be preparing another 9/11-style event.
Al Shabaab
The Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahidin (Al Shabaab) is a Salafist militant group active in East Africa. It is an Al Qaeda affiliate based in Somalia and Kenya and pursues the Islamist statehood aspiration in Somalia. The group sustains control over strategic locations by recruiting regional sub-clans and their militias, using guerrilla warfare and terrorist tactics against the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers, and nongovernmental aid organizations.
It gained global recognition after several deadly attacks in the Somali capital city of Mogadishu, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Al Shabaab usually targets the military and utilizes bombs and armed assaults as the main mode of attack.
The group does not have a centralized agenda and is characterized by constant infighting among leadership. It unites several members from different clans, it is interested in the nationalistic battle against the FGS and does not support global jihad. Al-Shabaab’s senior leaders remain affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
Haqqani network
The Afghanistan-based Haqqani network was founded in the 1980’s by Jalaluddin Haqqani, a charismatic leader and dedicated Jihadist. Osama Bin Laden was amongst his closest friends during the war against the Soviets and in the years after fighting the Afghan government. The Haqqani network provided the Taliban with men and weapons and was known for its ruthless attacks against anyone who opposed them. The wide use of suicide bombers made the Haqqani network a feared and unpredictable enemy. After the fall of the Afghan government in 1996, several high-ranking Haqqani men took up important positions in the new Taliban government.
During the Allied military operations to restore the Afghan government, the Haqqani network worked closely with the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces. Part of the strength of the Haqqani network is that they have a significant presence and governance across the border in Pakistan. The Pakistani Army and secret services have been accused by Western countries of being in league with the Haqqani network, and there are accusations that Pakistan has delivered weapons and money to the Haqqani network. Pakistan has denied any involvement but has also been unable to neutralize the Haqqani network’s influence in Pakistan and Eastern Afghanistan.
Since the death of Jalaluddin in 2018, his son Sirajuddin has taken over control of the organization and continues to have close ties with the Taliban government. Several intelligence agencies have stated that since the “Fall of Kabul” and the reinstatement of the Taliban government in 2021, the Haqqani network and Al Qaeda have opened dozens of training camps for Jihadists who want to join the global Jihadist struggle.
How do they fund their operations?
Terrorist groups have revenues from several activities, which include state sponsorship, illicit activities and business funds, such as smuggling of drugs, oil and weapons, and donations from individuals and institutions supporting a terrorist cause for political, economic, or religious interests. Drug smuggling is one of the most profitable activities. In this context, terrorist groups usually provide protection and play the role of brokerage.
An example is the smuggling of opium and methamphetamines in Afghanistan. The Taliban supply opium to the entire Afghan region and beyond, using the Balkan route from Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey to Europe.
Another key drug smuggling route is the so-called “Highway 10”, which goes from South America to West Africa and enables the trafficking of drugs all the way up to Europe. Highway 10 is exploited by jih
adist groups, which act as facilitators and broker the export of the drug to North Africa and Europe.
Oil smuggling is another highly profitable source of revenue for terrorist organizations, by smuggling it for cheaper than market prices. In Turkey, for example, oil has been smuggled at a cheaper price by neighboring countries Iran, Iraq, and Syria through moles. Terrorist organizations such as ISIS often directly participate by confiscating the oil from these countries and then selling it in conjunction with smugglers.
How do they recruit?
To capture, recruit followers, and consolidate their control, terrorist groups exploit political instability and local dissatisfaction with local governments, poor economic and social conditions in the regions of interest.
Among the recruiting systems used by these organizations, there is propaganda, which includes both offline and online campaigns, supporting media, and translation outlets to break down language barriers and reach a broader audience to recruit, incite to commit terrorist acts, and self-train. For example, IS utilizes Telegram to recruit personnel and send videos and information to their followers. JNIM uses propaganda to focus on highlighting the group’s operations, which includes the release of infographics listing their attacks, the spoils of war and casualties.
Another way terrorist groups use propaganda is by undermining their perception of a specific government. Al Qaeda, for example, has always criticized and manipulated the narrative of the United States.
Terrorist organizations are usually supported by their own networks, which produce and ensure the flow of information. For example, Al Qaeda launched the al-Nusra Foundation for Media Production on the 21st anniversary of the 11 September 2001 attacks. The self-professed mission of this media outlet is to support Muslims against declared enemies worldwide, by disseminating the true news about the “mujahidin”. Other media outlets, such as Thabat News Agency, report Al Qaeda and its affiliates' activities. These networks play a recruiting role by urging followers and Muslims to carry out operations against the West. An example is the HAT Guardians of Monotheism, which in 2022 issued a series of magazines in English urging readers to attack the West from within their own homeland.
What will the future bring?
JNIM and the Sahel:
JNIM is considered one of the most active militant groups in the wider Sahel region, having staged numerous attacks in Mali and Burkina Faso. On September 17, 2024, JNIM carried out a terrorist attack in Bamako, the Mali capital, targeting a military police training school and several other areas in the city, including the Modibo Keita International Airport, killing 77 people and injuring around 200. A month before, on August 25, 2024, the terrorist organization attacked the region of Barsalogho, opening fire against teams of people digging trenches designed to protect security outposts. They then posted videos of the attack on social media. It was mainly civilians that were attacked, and it led to the death of 200 people. Burkina Faso and Mali have been asking the Russian mercenary group Wagner, now known as the African Corps, to help fight the group. The terrorist attacks seem to be getting closer and closer to the respective capitals and it is not unlikely that more and more cities and villages will fall into the hands of the Jihadists in the remaining months of 2024.
Al Shabaab in Somalia, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania:
Al Shabaab has been expanding its terrorist activities in 2023 and 2024 to incorporate more East African countries despite the efforts of the African Union to form a consolidated coalition against the group. Distrust of the government, economic hardship and the impact of climate change is paving the way for Al Shabaab to recruit, mostly, poor people from the countryside to their ranks. With the United States retreating further from East African countries and leaving the counter-terrorism efforts to the African Union, it seems that there is a lack of training, experience, and coordination within the Union to effectively strike against Al Shabaab. 2024 will see a further rise of Al Shabaab activities
ISIS in Pakistan:
In 2024, ISIS and its affiliates have been carrying out several attacks through suicide bombings and well-coordinated military-like assaults in Pakistan. In the 10 days between the attack on the northern border with Afghanistan on March 16, 2024 and on March 26, 2024, Pakistan witnessed five different attacks, three in its northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and two in its southwestern Balochistan province, resulting in the deaths of at least 18 people. All five attacks were suicide bombings linked to ISIS. On September 29, 2024, more than 50 people were killed and many others injured in bomb attacks near a mosque in Mastung city. On the same day, a mosque in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, in the country’s northwest, was attacked by a suicide bomber as well. Although none of these attacks have been openly claimed by ISIS it is likely that the organization is behind the recent events.
ISIS in the Sahel:
ISIS is also spreading its operations in the Sahel region, where after the departure of the last French soldiers from Mali in October 2022, it has been targeting civilians and carrying out an offensive against rival Jihadist organization JNIM, which has seen the last stage with the capture of Tidermène, a locality located north of Ménaka on April 12, 2024. In its attacks against civilians, ISIS especially targets farmers, stealing their cattle to retrieve fundings for the organization. ISIS focuses on rural areas, where the population is threatened by the development of agricultural crops and feels neglected by the central State, and therefore is characterized by violence and resentment against the government. It is likely that ISIS will continue its attack in the rural areas of the Sahel region, recruiting as many followers as possible, to spread propaganda against the government and the rival organization JNIM, to outgrow it and become the predominant organization in the region.
ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the Haqqani network worldwide:
Overall, the most concerning terrorist trend in Europe and the United States is the one coming from Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. These organizations recruit young people, mostly young Muslim men with an immigrant background that feel disenfranchised by what they perceive to be racist government policies, through online propaganda, and are for example using the conflict between Israel and Hamas to call for violent action in the countries they reside. Meanwhile, the Haqqani network seems to focus mostly on creating spaces in Afghanistan where terrorist groups can train for future attacks on their perceived enemies.
Conclusion
Even though Jihadist terrorist groups have suffered some severe setbacks in the 2000s and 2010s, it seems that they are slowly, but surely, recovering and returning to their former strength. With the war in Ukraine and Israel taking up all the attention in the media and politics, it is not strange to see intelligence agencies and other government departments focus less on the Jihadist threat. Resources are simply not available or allocated to deal with the resurgence of groups like Al Qaeda while at the same time Western governments seem to have lost interest in creating a stable region in the Sahel after being evicted from a wide range of countries by young idealistic nationalist military regimes there.
It seems likely that Jihadist groups will grow in strength in the coming years as economic disparity and climate change will have more of an effect on the sub-Saharan region and parts of the Middle East and Central Asia. With the West retreating behind a curtain of international isolationism, as they deal with the war in Ukraine and the effects of electoral victories of anti-immigration parties, it is only a matter of time before Jihadist groups feel empowered and influential enough to again challenge the Western powers by conducting large terrorist attacks on Western soil, while in the meantime consolidating their position in the Sahel and Central Asia.
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