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Date: 24/07/2024
Location: Bangladesh
Parties involved: Students in Bangladesh, the Government of Bangladesh, Bangladesh National Party (BNP)
What happened?
Bangladesh has been faced with large student protests since early July. The protests demand a change to a quota system which requires 30% of well-paid civil service jobs to go to veterans from the Bangladesh war of independence in 1971. Protesters argue that the quota system is biased in favor of the ruling Awami League party members.
The protests in early July started peacefully, but became violent on 15/07/2024. The authorities launched a harsh crackdown on demonstrators with security forces targeting unarmed students, imposing a curfew in major cities and shutting down internet services around the country. PM Sheikh Hasina has claimed that the measures were necessary as political opponents were behind the protests and accused them of being ‘internal enemies’.
As of 23/07/2024, various news outlets reported that the death toll had reached 160 and that over 2,500 people have been arrested. The United Nations and Human Rights Watch have condemned the crackdown on the protests by the authorities of Bangladesh.
The protests took place in Chittagong, Natore, Rajshahi and the capital city of Dhaka. The protests mainly focused on university campuses, but in Dhaka also spread to other districts with protesters calling for a complete ‘shutdown’ of the capital.
On 21/07/2024 Bangladesh Supreme Court decided to scale the job quota back to 5% for family members of 1971 independence war veterans and 2% for members of ethnic minorities, transgenders, and disabled people.
While the Supreme Court scrapped most of the job quota, the protesters gave the government a 48-hour deadline to meet new demands on 22/07/2024. The demands call for justice for the killed protesters and their families and call for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to take responsibility. In addition, the protesters want the home minister and the road, transport and bridges minister to resign from cabinet and the Awami League party. Another demand is the resignation of the Vice Chancellors of multiple universities and the arrest of police officers that are responsible for the killings.
Analysis:
Bangladesh became independent in 1971 following a brutal war of independence from West Pakistan. Originally a part of East and West Pakistan, the then ruling military junta began Operation Searchlight to target Bengali nationalists through a mass insurgency campaign culminating in the Bengali genocide. The secular Awami League, supported by India, drove the military junta’s troops out of the country and declared its independence as Bangladesh. The Awami League has been in power since 1971. The current PM Sheikh Hasina is the daughter of the leader of the independence movement.
The violent response and crackdown on the protesters poses a serious challenge to the ruling Awami League. After winning the election on a low turnout with low voter participation and banning the main opposition party in January 2024, the grievances over inequality and corruption are continuing to be key concerns. The resurgence of a coordinated student movement and support for the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) could lead to a more violence response from the authorities, as they have cracked down harshly on opposition movements using live ammunition in extensive anti-government protests in 2018 and 2023.
The court ruling in favor of overturning the quota system on 23/07/2024 may calm the situation in the short-term. However there are still unmet demands by student protesters who have posted further demands arguing for a public apology to the families of students who were killed from the PM Sheikh Hasina and the resignation of several government ministers. It is still unclear how many protesters have been killed or tortured, with conservative estimates stating at least 150 people have died.
India has thus far remained neutral on the crackdown and curfew, calling it a matter of internal affairs. New Delhi has formed a close relationship with the ruling Awami League and may prioritize regime stability above accommodation. India is looking to maintain border stability with Bangladesh and prevent large inflows of refugees which could destabilize the delicate security situation in Manipur and Assam.
The UAE, India and Malaysia have evacuated citizens from major airports in Dhaka and Chittagong. Major airports are unlikely to be targeted but some protestors have called for airports which transport members of the ruling Awami League party to be blocked.
