Intel Brief: As crackdown on dissent intensifies, Venezuela arrests foreign nationals

Date: 19/09/2024

Location: Venezuela

Who’s involved: Venezuelan government, Venezuelan President Maduro, Spain, United States, UN, international community

What happened:

Following the contested re-election of Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela President, which was widely criticized for the lack of transparency, the government intensified the crackdown on the opposition, protests, and civil society to suppress dissent.
On 18/09/2024, Venezuela opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia stated he was forced to sign a letter of acceptance of Maduro’s victory at the 28 July elections by Venezuela’s top court. Following the ratification of Maduro’s victory by the country’s National Electoral Council (CNE) and Supreme Justice Court, arrest warrants over accusation of conspiracy and other crimes, including attempted electoral fraud and incitation of violence, were issued for opposition figures including González and the former opposition leader Machado. González is currently in Spain, where he was granted asylum.
On 17/09/2024, the UN reported a sharp deterioration of the repression in Venezuela, including crime against humanity of politically motivated persecution, following the elections of July 2024. The report described Maduro's government strategy to silence the opposition as “one of the most acute human rights crises in recent history”. Reportedly, in the past two months, at least 25 protestors were killed and nearly 2500 arbitrarily detained with the accusation of terrorism.
On 15/09/2024, the Venezuelan Interior Minister announced the arrests of six foreign nationals from the US, Spain and Czech Republic over an alleged plot to overthrow President Maduro and “destabilize” the country. Upon requests from foreign governments for information on the arrests, Venezuela reported that two Spanish nationals were arrested for allegedly being linked to Spanish intelligence services and engaged in a plot to assassinate prominent political figures and officials. Also, a Czech citizen and three US nationals, including a Navy member, were arrested for alleged involvement in terrorist acts. Venezuelan authorities stated that the US nationals were part of a CIA-led plot to kill President Maduro. The US State department rejected the allegations. A few days later, on 17/09/2024, the detention of a fourth US citizen was confirmed by the Venezuelan Ministry of the Interior. While the man's identity has not been confirmed, it was reported that he was arrested for photographing military installations, state entities, and electrical and oil infrastructure.
The arrests came a few days after the souring of diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Spain. The Venezuelan government recalled its ambassador to Spain, following the meeting between exiled Venezuelan opposition leader González and the Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish parliament's recognition of González as the winner of the presidential election, and a remark by the Spanish Defense Minister calling the Maduro government a dictatorship.
On 12/09/2024, the US Biden administration announced the imposition of sanctions on sixteen allies of Venezuelan President Maduro government in response to the electoral fraud, human rights abuses and violent crackdown of the opposition, including the President of Venezuela’s Supreme Court, the director of the electoral council, and several military and intelligence officials.

Analysis:

The recent presidential elections in Venezuela have triggered a deep domestic political crisis and international controversy. Although the Maduro regime claims victory in the polls, opposition forces and several Western nations dispute the results and denounce the manipulation, lack of transparency, and credibility of the electoral process. Available data from polling centers reportedly record an estimated 67% of the votes for the leading opposition candidate González Urrutia. Nonetheless, the regime of President Maduro, who has been in office since 2013, is increasing its grip on power, demonstrating complete control of the country's electoral, judicial, and military bodies. Recent developments suggest an irreparable deterioration of democracy, the rule of law, and civil and political liberties in the country.
Venezuela is experiencing a period of unprecedented political violence and repression. To halt protests and rampant dissent against Maduro's re-election, the government is carrying out systematic repression and persecution of actual or alleged opponents of the regime, such as opposition members, civil society activists, journalists, ordinary citizens, and foreign nationals.
Along with the alarming levels of violent repression against the Venezuelan population, the political crisis and souring diplomatic relations raise concerns about the country’s international standing. The UN, the US, Spain, other EU members, and some Latin American countries recognized González as the winner of the Venezuelan presidential elections. Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico have asked Venezuela to release the results to be independently validated. The firm reaction of the US administration to back the Venezuelan opposition and the imposition of new sanctions against Venezuelan officials could also have dire implications for the local population, regional actors, and US interests. In the past, US sanctions have aggravated Venezuela's economic crisis that forced over 7.7 million people to flee the country. So far international pressure and sanctions have proven to be ineffective against the Maduro regime.
Despite international pressure for democratic electoral transition, it seems unlikely that Maduro, bolstered by the support of military elites and judicial bodies, will not retain power after the end of his term, on 10/01/2025. The inauguration of the new administration is scheduled for January 2025, and municipal, regional, and parliamentary elections are also planned for next year.

Conclusion:

The Maduro government's violent crackdown on post-election protests, including human rights abuses and crimes against humanity, raises concerns for the liberties and security of the Venezuelan people. In response to the systematic repression of dissent and the authorities' rejection of the democratic transition, the international community is responding with diplomatic and economic pressure through the imposition of new sanctions and backing of the Venezuelan opposition. So far, though, the international community's strategy is not producing positive change and instead risks exacerbating current issues. While the restoration of democratic institutions and addressing the economic crisis are priorities, the international community, especially the US, should evaluate a thoughtful use of sanctions and of exit strategies for Maduro and government officials to encourage regime change.