Date: 06/08/2024
Location: Bangladesh
Parties involved: Students in Bangladesh, the Government of Bangladesh, Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Bangladesh Armed Forces
What happened?
On 05/08/2024, Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, announced her resignation and is residing in the Hindon Air Force station near Delhi. This came after a month of protests in which security forces and members of the Awami League violently repressed demonstrators. The tipping point was her decision to crackdown on thousands of people protesting outside of her residence on 05/06/2024. This prompted her powerful backers, the military and the garment industry tycoons to turn against her. Following talks with her family and her advisors, she handed in her resignation.
There are reports of extensive clashes between protesters and the authorities in Dhaka, particularly Bakshi Bazar, Banasree and Basundhara. Attacks have also targeted cultural venues, television offices and parliament, as well as the former Awami League party offices in Dhaka. Without balancing the need for order and preventing further reprisals from the authorities, further violence could also occur in the coming days.
The July protesters began with demands to reform a quota for civil services jobs for the ruling party, the Awami League. After weeks of peaceful protest however, they became violent as authorities cracked down on protesters. The clashes with the authorities and demonstrators have led to over the deaths of 300 people, the worst bloodshed in Bangladesh’s recent history. The demands turned to regime change as more than 20,000 protesters were injured. The protesters are demanding accountability for the violent suppression of the protests.
The EU and India have said that they are very concerned about the reports of attacks on minorities, places of worship and members of religious and ethnic minorities. The situation remains volatile as the protests have picked up. The army and police are unwilling to act to repair basic order around the country. The organization of the army is also in flux; the military has been reshuffled and five generals were put into retirement.
Analysis:
The mass protests have produced a profound and historic political change in Bangladesh. While the country has often been touted as a success story of economic growth and export manufacturing, inequality is rampant and corruption between garment tycoons and political elites has been rampant. The Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had maintained power through cracking down violently on protesters, extrajudicial killings and rigged elections. Previous attempts at protests, such as after the opposition-boycotted elections in January 2024, resulted in widespread repression on opponents and human rights violations.
The question remains about who will lead the country after she has left. The current president of Bangladesh, Mohammed Shahbuddin ordered the release of opposition leader Khaleda Zia, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and said that all political parties had agreed to dissolve parliament and form a transitional government. It is notable that the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami party were in talks, without the former ruling Awami League politicians.
The students who played an instrumental role announced that they will not accept a candidate supported by the military, and have instead announced their own list of eligible candidates. One suggestion is the Nobel laureate Mohammah Yunus, the head of a development bank, as the chief advisor to the interim government. The students also remain wary of relying too much on the military for the restoration of order, citing the military’s role in suppressing democratic processes in the past. On the other hand, there are some reports that there are divisions in the military elite over how to handle the ensuing protests, with some calling for a further crackdown, while others are calling for the demands of the protests to be recognised.
Sheikh Hasina’s future is an important factor for the future of Bangladesh's relationship with India. She initially fled to New Delhi and there are reports that she is trying to seek asylum in the UK, though the UK government has not so far accepted her argument. If she stays in India, it will be difficult for India to build ties with the new Bangladeshi government that may come to power after ousting her. PM Hasina has forged closer relations with India, due to its support for Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. She also received support from India due to her hard position toward anti-Indian armed groups operating the country.
