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Date: 14/11/2024
Where:
Mozambique
Who’s involved:
Frelimo (Front for the Liberation of Mozambique), Podemos (Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique), Mozambicans, Mozambique security forces
What happened?
On 9/10/2024 national elections took place in Mozambique. On 24/10/2024, the final results were validated by the Supreme Court and led to a landslide victory for Mozambique’s ruling party Frelimo with more than 70% of the vote. The emergent opposition party Podemos won 20% of the vote and the Renamo party came third with just over 5% of the votes. However, this landslide win from the Frelimo party led to a wave of protests, with opposition groups arguing that the elections were unfair and rigged in favor of Frelimo. The leader of Frelimo, Daniel Chapo, will be sworn into office as the new president of Mozambique in January 2025.
On 28/10/2024, the leader of Podemos Venancio Mondlane called for organized nationwide demonstrations against the final result. This comes after the election campaign was marked by allegations of electoral fraud, voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, staffing polling stations with officials loyal to the Frelimo party and election-related violence, particularly the death of Mondlane’s lawyer and the party official spokesperson, who were shot dead on 19/10/2024. The Mais Integridade election observer said that the killings were designed to intimidate anyone demanding transparency in the polls.
On 31/10/2024, the authorities in the country turned off social media access for the population for the second time and internet access was cut across the country amid the escalating unrest.
On 6/11/2024 South Africa closed the Lebombo border with Mozambique as post-election protests escalated and Mozambican authorities threatened to deploy soldiers. South African authorities warned its citizens to avoid non-essential visits to Mozambique. The border was reopened on 11/11/2024.
On 7/11/2024, thousands of Mozambican’s gathered in Maputo for the biggest protest yet against the ruling party. Heavily armed police responded with rubber bullets, tear gas and live ammunition which reportedly killed one person. Later that day the army was deployed with the Frelimo claiming that the protests were part of a ‘coup’.
On 12/11/2024, Mondlane urged protesters through social media to target parts of Mozambique’s economy and trade routes with South Africa and Zimbabwe.
Analysis:
The 2024 elections in Mozambique were marked by widespread allegations of electoral tampering and violent protests. This echoed similar unrest that had occurred a year before in the 2023 local elections. However, the emergence of the Podemos party has added a new dynamic into Mozambique’s politics. The two traditional parties which have dominated Mozambique’s politics since the end of the bloody civil war in 1992, the Frelimo and Renamo, were unable to address the rise of the opposition Podemos party. Mondlane, the leader of the party, was able to capitalize on the grievances of the younger population, who feel the system fails to represent their interests. The Frelimo party, despite being in power now for nearly half a century, has been unable to tackle pressing challenges facing the country such as unemployment rates, corruption, failure to resolve the insurgency in Cabo Delgado and public service infrastructure.
As a key figure for further protests, Mondlane fled to South Africa following the election and he continues to call for protests against the contested results. This instability can be predicted to continue in the near future, especially given the support for Mondlane’s party which has a political agenda favored by many young Mozambicans as it aims to eradicate poverty, unemployment, corruption and reduce extremist violence in the country.
There are continuing human rights concerns in the authorities response to the protests. The riots have to lead to the death of at least 20 people according to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. The police used rubber bullets and tear gas to quell the riots and in early November, Mozambican authorities deployed the army as the scale of the riots and social unrest had significantly increased. Such human rights violations are likely to continue in the form of excessive use of force, arbitrary arrests and the repression of their freedom of speech and assembly.
The post-election protests are affecting foreign and domestic investment in Mozambique. South Africa’s Border Management Agency closed its side of one of the region’s busiest border crossings after 15 employees from the Mozambican border post crossed over seeking refuge and protection and the agency had warned South Africans to postpone non-essential travel to Mozambique. South African logistics company, Grindrod, also claimed it had suspended port and terminal operations in Mozambique. The protests may delay projects such as the $20 billion natural gas export project led by Total Energies SE. Detrimental to Mozambique’s economy would be the relocation of such businesses which they heavily rely on due to the disruptions.
The protests have drawn the attention of the international community and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) has called for an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis in Mozambique. The unrest and interruption across Mozambique’s ports is a threat to landlocked countries including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo who rely on its ports for trade.
Conclusion:
The ongoing protests in Mozambique are likely to have far-reaching consequences for the country. Despite Mondlane being in exile, he continues to utilize public dissatisfaction to call on the population for more disruptions to take place. The protests are expected to persist and potentially escalate in intensity. The authorities and the Frelimo party continue to crackdown on protesters. If left unaddressed, the combination of economic challenges and social discontent could lead to prolonged instability, hindering Mozambique's long-term development prospects.
