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Date: 07/02/2025
Where:
Lebanon, Beirut - Sports City Stadium
Lebanon, Beirut, near the Imam Khomeini Center (33° 50’ 45” N, 35° 29’ 45” E)
Lebanon, Deir Qanoun En Nahr
Who’s involved:
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Iran, Hamas, Houthis
What happened:
On 02/02/2025, Hezbollah announced that it would hold the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah on 23/02/2025 in Beirut. Beirut will also be Nasrallah's burial location. The former leader of Hezbollah was killed by an Israeli airstrike on 27/09/2024, but a formal funeral was delayed due to the extent of the hostilities at the time. Hezbollah had, until now, only resorted to a temporary burial due to security concerns. The planned funeral procession will be held for both Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, another senior Hezbollah official who replaced Nasrallah after his death. Safieddine was himself killed by an Israeli airstrike on 03/10/2024.
Saffieddine will instead be buried in his hometown, Deir Qanoun En Nahr. This was also announced on 02/02/2025.
A previously agreed-upon ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel is supposed to begin on 18/02/2025.
Analysis:
Given the high profile of the funeral, several officials from Hezbollah’s allies are to be expected. The speech given by current Hezbollah leader Nair Qassem suggests that the group expects a large gathering of “political forces, parties, officials and other concerned parties”. Iran has announced it will send a delegation to the funeral, but it has yet to disclose who is going to be a part of the delegation. Hamas and Houthis officials are also expected to attend. Given past Hezbollah funerals, it is also expected that the procession will be attended by Hezbollah fighters as well as civilian supporters. The likely presence of a large number of armed Hezbollah fighters and the magnitude of this funeral could make for a particularly volatile situation. Unconfirmed images place the burial location in southern Beirut, near the Imam Khomeini Center (33° 50’ 45” N, 35° 29’ 45” E).
The most recent ceasefire deadline between Israel and Hezbollah is 18/02/2025, meaning that the procession will take place five days after the truce is to commence. This delay could likely serve as a buffer period to see if the ceasefire holds. Crucially, the ceasefire deal requires Hezbollah to surrender its weapons. This is unlikely to happen, meaning that the ceasefire’s observance is already at risk.
Given the expected significant presence of senior officials from Hezbollah’s state and non-state allies, Israel will likely hold off from attacking the procession. The risk of killing state officials is significantly high and could lead to an escalation that Israel is unprepared and/or unwilling to explore. Nevertheless, Israel will likely observe and follow the procession closely.
There could be a strategic reason behind Hezbollah’s information disclosure regarding the funeral as well as the disclosure occurring so far in advance. Hezbollah’s aim could be to create enough media coverage and attention so as to nullify any Israeli covert attempt to strike or otherwise interfere with the procession. Moreover, the disclosure and its timing could serve as a way of making sure that the event is as big as possible. The funeral marks a crucial opportunity for Hezbollah’s leadership to rally support for the group and make sure that they will retain political and military relevance. Since the death of Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s power has progressively waned. This power vacuum has opened the opportunity for the Lebanese Armed Forces and Parliament to properly challenge Hezbollah’s dominance for the first time in years. The recent appointment of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is a testament to the Lebanese Parliament's will to challenge Hezbollah. It is likely that if Hezbollah does not prevent this from happening now, it may not gain back its power.
Conclusion:
The funerals of former long-standing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his immediate successor, Hashem Safieddine, will be held on 23/02/2025 in Beirut. For precautionary measures, it is advisable to avoid Beirut and southern Lebanon on the days around the funeral. If possible, temporarily relocate to northern Lebanon until 25/02/2025. Given the alleged burial location’s vicinity to the airport, it is also advised to avoid flying to and from Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY/OLBA) on the days around the funeral.