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Date: 28/08/2024
Where: Balochistan (Pakistan)
Who’s involved:
Separatist militants,
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA),
Pakistan’s government and
security forces, the Inter-Service Intelligence forces (ISI) and China
What happened?
Between 25/08/2024 and 26/08/2024 several separate attacks targeting civilians coming from Pakistan’s Punjab province, took place in different cities in the Balochistan (or Baluchistan) province, in the south-west of Pakistan. At least 74 people were killed, marking one of the deadliest days of violence in the province.
Civilians traveling from Punjab province were pulled from their vehicles and shot dead by armed gunmen. The deadliest of the attacks occurred in the Rarasham area of Musakhel district where at least 23 people were dragged out of their vehicles and were executed, after having verified their Punjabi ethnicity.
In Kalat district, 140 km South of the provincial capital Quetta, armed fighters targeted law enforcement personnel, killing at least 10. Rail traffic was suspended in Bolan district, southeast of Quetta, on a rail linking the provincial capital to the rest of Pakistan, as well as on a rail link to neighboring Iran. Six people were killed.
The secessionist group Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attacks. They said in a statement that the attacks targeted the security forces and they took control of highways across the province.
Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif vowed retaliation for the brutal attacks and “complete elimination of terrorists” and stated that the separatists seek to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing, which has previously raised concerns about the security of its nationals working in Pakistan, condemned the attacks and offered support to Islamabad counter-terrorism efforts. The attacks occurred during a visit to Islamabad of Chinese top officials to discuss security of Chinese projects and infrastructure in Pakistan. Following militant attacks targeting foreign workers, the Pakistani government announced in June 2024 the creation of a special police unit to protect foreigners and bolster Chinese nationals' security in the country.
The recent coordinated attacks are not isolated incidents. Similar past attacks, targeting Punjabi laborers in Balochistan, have been claimed by the BLA. On 09/05/2024 seven barbers from Punjab province were fatally shot in the port city of Gwadar, in Balochistan. In April 2024, 11 people were killed and several abducted in two separate attacks on the Quetta-Taftan highway.
During the past few months, massive large-scale peaceful protests by ethnic Baloch took place in Balochistan, to denounce systemic abuses by the central government to suppress political dissent, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. According to Amnesty International, over 10000 Baloch have disappeared since 2011. The government has been violently cracking down on protests. Recent deadly clashes between protesters and security forces occurred in the vicinity of the port of Gwadar in late July 2024.
Analysis:
Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan and Iran, is Pakistan’s largest but least populated province. It is predominantly inhabited by the Baluch minority, ethnic group spread between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, which have fought against the Pakistani government since 2004. The Baloch insurgency is rooted in a combination of long-standing historical, economic and political grievances, including systematic political exclusion and discrimination compared to the Punjab population, the majority ethnic group in Pakistan, unequal representation in institutions and law enforcement, and economic oppression and exploitation of the natural resources, especially natural gas.
While tensions between the central government and the Baloch minority are long-standing, the current separatist insurgency began with the announcement in 2001 of a Chinese-funded project to build a mega-port and transportation hub in the village of Gwadar. The local population though has neither been involved nor benefited from the construction of the infrastructure, run by the Pakistani government and relying on Chinese workers and engineers, spawning economic marginalization and resentment among the Baloch people.
Moreover, another factor in the violent escalation of the Baloch insurgency was the militarization of the region by Pakistani security forces due to the influx of refugees and Taliban troops into the bordering region of Balochistan during the conflict in Afghanistan.
The Baloch Liberation Army is one of the main ethnic insurgent groups in Balochistan. The group goal is the protection of Baloch people's economic and resource exploitation by the Pakistani state and the creation of an independent Baloch state. Authorities estimate the group to have around 3,000 fighters. It has been designated by the US as a terrorist organization. The BLA is based in bordering Afghanistan.
Insurgencies are also opposing the Pakistani government’s involvement in the Chinese Belt Road initiative, accusing Islamabad of exploiting oil and mineral resources of Balochistan in the massive Chinese-led projects. In the past, Baloch groups have often targeted Chinese nationals and interests in the province, including Gwadar port and mines.
While attacks on ethnic Punjab workers and foreigners have occurred before in Balochistan, the recent escalation of violence suggests a shift in scale, nature and coordination of BLA attacks and tactics. Punjabi civilians went from being casualties or sporadic targets to the main target of greater coordinated brutality. The reasons behind the violent attacks appear to be mounting resentment over the economic exclusion of the local population over Punjabi majority and foreign workers. Moreover, an escalation of violence in the region would sabotage investment by foreign companies, especially Chinese, exploiting local natural resources.
Last year, on 07/04/2023, the Pakistani intelligence agency, the ISI, revealed to the public it had arrested the leader of the Baloch National Army (BNA). The ISI then predicted that the insurgency movements in Balochistan had been dealt a severe blow and that the insurgents would surrender soon. The ISI has since then continued to use force against Balochi people indiscriminately, further aggravating the local population.
The government is expected to respond with a massive deployment of forces in the already militarized Balochistan province. In order to stop attacks on civilians and preserve credibility with foreign partners and investors, especially China, an escalation of offensives against separatist groups is likely. More fighting is likely to further escalate the conflict.
Conclusion:
While Baloch separatist groups' attacks targeting security personnel, civilians, and foreign workers are not new in Balochistan, the latest coordinated escalation of violence is especially alarming due to the unprecedented scale and intensity. The attacks are the latest display of the frustration and grievances of the Baloch people, who denounce military oppression and political and economic exclusion by the Pakistani central government. Further protests are to be expected, although the brutality of the BLA's attacks might risk undermining the cause and claims of the Baloch ethnic movements. The government will likely intensify its militarization efforts in the region, as it already has announced repercussions and has economic and diplomatic interests with China in eradicating the separatist insurgency in Balochistan. Yet, the military approach has been unsuccessful in the past decades, instead exacerbating an escalation of the conflict between security forces and separatist armed groups. To solve the conflict, the Pakistani government should address the development and resource exploitation concerns of locals, ensure institutional recognition for the claims of the Baloch community, and end systematic discrimination. Unless serious measures are taken there is no chance of restoring stability and security and breaking the decades-long conflict in Balochistan.
