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Date: 02/10/2024
Who’s involved:
Israel, Mossad, IDF/IAF, Hezbollah, Hamas, IRGC, Iran, Houthi.
Prior to 07/10/2023
Israel and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been at odds since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. The IRGC is responsible for supporting, mostly Shia, terrorist groups outside of Iran who focus on attacking Israel and the United States and their interests. The past decade the Mossad is believed to have focussed mostly on undermining the IRGC leadership by targeting and killing IRGC commanders across the Middle East. These attacks have taken place mostly in Syria where the IRGC supports the regime of Bashir Al-Assad. The IRGC has deployed Hezbollah, which was founded and funded by Iran in 1982, to help Assad. Meanwhile, the Shia Houthi rebel group in Yemen, which is also funded and armed by Iran, has been focussing its attacks on Israeli and Western interests in the Red Sea in an attempt to put more pressure on Israel and the West to stand down on its involvement in the war in Gaza. The so-called Axis of Resistance, named by Iran, that includes Hezbollah, the Houthi and Palestinian terrorist groups has been falling apart lately and there is a chance the coalition might not make it through the coming months now that Israel has shown it is capable of targeting and killing high ranking members of all organizations involved.
What has happened since 07/10/2023?
On 25/12/2023 Sayyed Reza Mousavi, who was IRGC Brigade Commander Qasem Soleimani’s direct replacement as the highest ranking IRGC commander after his assassination on 06/01/2020 in Baghdad by the United States, was killed in an alleged Israeli air strike just outside of Damascus.
On 01/04/2024 Israel allegedly attacked a housing apartment next to the Iranian consulate in Damascus killing three of Soleimani’s successors, Mohammed Zahedi, Hossein Aminullah and Hadi Rahimi. Combined these three commanders were responsible for Iranian activities in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
With the assassination of highest commanding Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31/07/2024 in Tehran by a remote controlled explosive device it showed how much the IRGC and Hamas communications networks had been compromised. Haniyey had been invited to celebrate the inauguration of the new Iranian president and was staying at a highly secured IRGC apartment building when the device was remotely detonated.
Since 07/10/2023 there have been dozens of air strikes on joint IRGC/Syrian Army/Hezbollah installations across Syria. Most of these attacks can be attributed to Israel in an effort to destroy IRGC infrastructure and command staff. The IRGC uses Syria as a hub for bringing in weapons and advisors. From Syria the weapons are then distributed across Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank as the advisors receive Hamas and Hezbollah commanders who will then design plans of attack against Israel together. The 07/10/2023 attack on Israel is also believed to have been designed in coordination with the IRGC.
When on 17 and 18/09/2024 pagers worn by Hezbollah members were detonated all across Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus it became clear how close Hezbollah and the IRGC are connected. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was wounded by an exploding pager and several IRGC members in Syria also had their pagers explode resulting in dozens of wounded.
On 01/10/2024 the IRGC launched a missile attack on Israel, aiming at three military bases in the area. The attack was accompanied by a large-scale cyber attack, and IRGC affirmed it had to be considered a response attack to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan last week in Beirut, as well as the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
In the context of the new conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah has shown solidarity with the Palestinians, and has been launching attacks against Israel since 08/10/2023. The tit for tat attacks between the two countries has been ongoing, but has seen an escalation in July 2024 with the Hezbollah missile strike on 27/07/2024 that killed 12 children in the Golan Heights. That event sparked a retaliatory attack by the IDF that killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr on 30/07/2024.
In the following month the tension and an ongoing series of strikes from both parties culminated in a large-scale Israeli preemptive air strike involving over 100 fighter jets on 25/08/2024, which was in anticipation of a Hezbollah large-scale attack, and demonstrated how strong Israeli military and intelligence actually is.
Over the past months, Israel has been killing most of the Hezbollah field commanders, and with the recent death of Hezbollah supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah on the 28/09/2024, Hezbollah lost the key figure of the party, leaving the group disorganized and weak.
Analysis:
In the past months Hezbollah has undergone severe losses, both in terms of armaments and of field commanders, which have been killed to weaken the organization. The latest blast of pagers and walkie talkies in September represented a significant blow for the group, and with the recent killing of supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah is left disorganized, and thus will likely be unable to deter the Israel invasion currently happening in the southern part of the country. The Iran-backed proxies, like the Houthi in Yemen and Hezbollah in Iraq, have been weakened over the past months, and have been suffering severe losses from Israeli attacks as well, thus leaving Hezbollah without a strong backup. Therefore, Hezbollah will probably be incapable of bouncing back and organizing a proportionate response to the Israeli recent invasion.
In the week since the death of Nasrallah there have been several instances of Hezbollah and other Iranian backed militants who have openly complained about the lack of action on the side of Iran. On several social media posts Iran has been accused of backing out of promises made in the past. With every death of a Hezbollah or IRGC commander Iranian leadership has threatened to retaliate severely against Israel. But after the failed attempt on 13/04/2024, when Iran launched 300 rockets, missiles and UAVs against Israel with no effect, Iran has been absent from the battlefield. In a significant move on the part of the Islamic Republic it has placed its religious leader, Ali Khamenei, under extra protection inside a bunker somewhere in Iran out of fear of an Israeli strike. It is likely that the Iranian security forces are worried about the breach of their communication systems after the recent pager explosions and other targeted strikes on their highest ranking IRGC commanders. Iran has declared it has arrested over 57 people who were allegedly working for Israel to undermine the Iranian government.
The complete failure of the 13/04/2024 attack has undoubtedly also had an effect on the confidence in its offensive capabilities that were deemed to be more significant than what they turned out to be. Organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthi rely on an active and aggressive Iran so it is likely that they are now questioning Iran’s loyalty to them. The Iranian attack on 01/10/2024 was a symbolic gesture from Iran towards its proxies to show that Iran is still on their side. Whether or not the gesture will be enough to address the unrest within the proxies is to be seen. The situation could still turn into mistrust and a reevaluation of their relationships, which in turn could lead to a complete breakdown of the Iranian coalition.
Conclusion:
Since 07/10/2024, tension between Israel and the so-called Axis of Resistance has escalated. The past year has seen an ongoing tit for tat between the parties, and the recent months experienced an increase of attacks from the Israeli military. The balance of power shifted in Israel's favor, whereas Hezbollah and its proxies have undergone severe military losses. Despite the Iranian attack on 01/10/2024 to try to stop the unrest within the proxies the so-called “Axis of Resistance” is still severely weakened and close to falling apart. The coming weeks will likely show how much damage Israel has inflicted to the Axis.