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Date: 24/10/2024
Who’s involved: Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, United States.
What happened?
The Israeli Defense Force’s ground invasion of Lebanon and the Israeli Air Forces’ bombing campaign in the south of Lebanon aimed at crippling Hezbollah’s forces is ongoing. On 16/10/2024 an Israeli airstrike destroyed the municipal headquarters in a major town in south Lebanon, killing 16 people including the mayor. On the same day, the UN mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said its peacekeepers observed an Israeli tank firing at their watchtower near southern Lebanon's Kfar Kila. On 21/10/2024 UNIFIL was accused of accepting money from Hezbollah in exchange for access for this latter to UNIFIL bases for conducting operations. UNIFIL denied the accusations, but the investigation is still ongoing.
On 20/10/2024 the Israeli Air Force conducted a series of targeted, intelligence-based strikes against dozens of facilities and sites used by Hezbollah to finance its terrorist activities against Israel.
On 21/10/2024 seven Israelis were arrested by the Israeli security services on suspicion of espionage for Iran. Prosecutors alleged they had completed around 600 missions on behalf of Iran, including gathering intelligence on sensitive military and infrastructure sites, and identifying potential human targets for Iran.
On 21/10/2024 an Israeli official stated that two of Israel’s conditions for a ceasefire with Lebanon include allowing the IDF to engage in active enforcement to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and rebuilding its military infrastructure in the areas of southern Lebanon, and freedom for operations of the IDF in Lebanese airspace. The US Department of Defense deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery (THAAD) and an associated crew of US military personnel to Israel.
On 21/10/2024 a classified document regarding Israel’s plans to attack Iran was leaked without authorization on Telegram. The document assessed Israeli’s readiness to conduct the attack and its possible weaknesses. It also describes the possible use of long-range missiles to conduct a long distance aerial attack.
On 18/10/2024 the Islamic resistance in Iraq, a coalition of armed groups based in Iraq, targeted two key military sites in the city of Eilat and in southern Israel. Over the past two weeks, Iran-linked militias in Iraq have launched about 40 aerial attacks involving missiles, drones or rockets on Israel.
On 17/10/2024 the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by IDF forces in an operation in Rafah, Gaza. Yahya was one of the masterminds behind the 7th October attack. His death is significant for the existence of the Hamas group, and many western countries hope that this event could lead to the signing of a ceasefire and the release of the hostages held captive by Hamas. The US has urged Israel to end the war in the Middle East and bring peace to Gaza, stating that the death of Sinwar has fulfilled Israel’s objectives in Gaza.
Analysis:
After the Iranian ballistic missile attack on 01/10/2024, Israel has vowed a response in retaliation for the attack. There is speculation that Israel could lead to aerial bombing and targeting of Iranian oil fields or nuclear sites. The US has deployed an anti-missile system to Israel and Iran’s air defenses are on high alert in anticipation of expecting Israeli retaliatory airstrikes.
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is intensifying. Israel is attempting to destabilize and destroy Hezbollah by revealing how Iran funds Hezbollah's terrorism using civilian institutions, associations, and charities as cover for their operations, and how any other illicit financing and supporting activities have been used by the Iran-backed group. Israel seems to be considering accepting a ceasefire with Hezbollah, but on the condition that Hezbollah does not maintain its position close to Israel's northern border. Hezbollah had initially said it would only consider a ceasefire with Israel if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza.
The death of Yahya Sinwar as the head of Hamas may be a turning point after a year of hostilities in the Israel-Hamas conflict. His death dealt a blow to the organization, and could potentially accelerate a hostage deal, or lead to the group’s disintegration. The leader that will replace Sinwar could play a role in a possible ceasefire. Other candidates include Yahya Sinwar brother Mohammad Sinwar or Khaled Mashaa. It is likely that the latter will take the role of leader from outside Gaza, whereas Mohammad Sinwar is expected to assume a bigger role within Gaza.
Conclusion:
The situation in the Middle East is highly tense and unpredictable. The Israeli targeting of Hezbollah and Hamas on all the open fronts are weakening both organizations. This limits Iran’s assets, leaving the country to rely on its other minor proxies. The US intervention to mediate for a ceasefire in both Lebanon and Gaza offers a possibility for a ceasefire, though previous attempts have not led to concrete results. The US anti-missile system deployed in Israel might hinder the effectiveness of a US mediation. Iran’s air defenses are on high alert in anticipation of expecting Israeli retaliatory airstrikes, though the scale and targets of the IAF is yet to be seen.
