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Date: 08/11/2024
Where:
Israel
Who’s involved:
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hamas, US president-elect Donald Trump
What happened?
On 06/11/2024, Israeli members of Knesset congratulated Donald Trump for his victory, and Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed his election marks a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. The Israeli Defense Minister considered this event as a positive step to strengthen the US-Israel alliance, which will positively influence the talks on the hostages release.
On 05/11/2024, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu fired the country's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. The event gave rise to a series of protests in Israel calling on Netanyahu to resign. They further demanded the new defense minister Israel Katz to prioritize a hostage deal. After being appointed, Katz vowed to prioritize the return of Israel's hostages from Gaza, and the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah.
On 05/11/2024, the US State Department said that Hamas rejected a proposal for a short-term ceasefire and hostage release deal, still sticking to the demand of a permanent withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
On 03/11/2024 Netanyahu spokesperson Eliezer Feldstein was arrested on suspicion of removing and manipulating sensitive information from the Israel Defense Forces database and leaking it to the German tabloid, Bild. The documents concerned Hamas military strategy, and alleged that the organization was trying to smuggle terrorists and hostages out of Gaza to Iran via Egypt.
On 03/11/2024 the former Senior Shin Bet official Micha Kobi, who was also Yahya Sinwar’s interrogator, said in an interview that Hamas members do not know precisely where the hostages are being held, and the organization is not interested in releasing them
On 02/11/2024 Hamas political official dismissed the proposal for limited truce and affirmed that it would only accept a deal that includes the cessation of aggression and withdrawal of military forces from Gaza.
On 30/10/2024 two sources familiar with the hostage situation revealed to The Times of Israel that Donald Trump pressured Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end hostilities in Gaza before his return to office, in case of victory in the elections.
Analysis:
The recent dismissal of the Israeli Ministry of Defense is significant because Gallant was a more moderate person in Netanhyau’s government, and the one who most disagreed with the Prime Minister on the deal to release the hostages. Unlike the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, Gallant was more inclined to make concessions for the purpose of bringing the hostages back from Gaza. In addition, Gallant was considered closer to the US pentagon, holding regular meetings with US Secretary of State Blinken and acting as the main point of communication between the US and the Israeli war cabinet. Gallant’s replacement as the new defense minister is Israel Katz, who is more aligned with Netanyahu’s vision. This will impact the future steps Israel will take regarding the ceasefire with Hamas, and could likely mean that the country will not be condescending on the talks, thereby hindering the efforts of the Israeli negotiators to bring more flexibility in the deal.
The recent imprisonment of Netanyahu spokesperson Eliezer Feldstein for the security breach might influence the Israeli government's future, and hinder Netanyahu’s position. The scandal might compromise the talks with Hamas on the release of the hostages as well. The leaked documents contained sensitive and confidential information, including Hamas unwillingness to accept any hostage negotiations, and its plan to smuggle hostages through the Philadelphi Corridor. The control of this latter was Netanyahu’s baseline condition to accept a ceasefire in September. Therefore, the leak of this document not only could compromise Netanyahu, alleging that he knew of Hamas intentions, but may also have compromised the possibility of Israel reaching a ceasefire earlier in September. In addition, it is not impossible that it could undermine future talks. The possibility of a ceasefire is also jeopardized by the allegations made by Micha Kobi on Hamas' members not knowing where hostages are. If these turn out to be true, it could escalate the tensions between Hamas and Israel, thereby hindering the possibility of a ceasefire.
The recent election of Trump as the 47th president of the United States of America will likely influence the next Israeli steps toward a deal with Hamas. Trump has already stated his willingness to achieve a ceasefire signed between Israel and Hamas before his establishment in the White House next January, and repeatedly called for a fast resolution of the conflict. Therefore, it is possible that Trump will put pressure on Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire with Hamas soon, and might push the Israeli Prime minister to sign a deal with the other Sunni countries in the region as well, to de-escalate the current situation.
Conclusion
The election of Trump as 47th president of the United States of America has marked a significant shift in the US stance regarding the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and will likely influence the next steps of the Israeli government as well. The recent events regarding the Israeli government might impact the next steps of the country regarding the hostage deal. The appointment of a new defense minister might hinder Israeli flexibility during future talks with Hamas, and it is not impossible that the recent security breach will play a role as well. This latter might also impact Netanyahu’s presidency in the near future. Moreover, the newly appointed US President Trump will likely speed up the course of the negotiations on the release of the hostages, and influence the future steps of the Israeli government in the relations with Hamas and the other countries in the region. The following weeks will show what consequences these events will have in the stability of the region.
