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Date: 29/08/2024
Who’s involved:
Government of National Accord, Libyan National Army, militias, clans, OPEC, the United Nations, foreign actors with personal interests
What happened?
On 23/07/2024 the Government of National Accord mobilized troops and militias and deployed them closer to the border with Libyan National Army controlled areas in the south-west of the country. This move alarmed the Algerian armed forces since the Libyan forces were getting very close to its borders.
On 09/08/2024 the Libyan National Army, under control by General Haftar and his son Saddam, mobilized its forces and called on militias, clan and other armed groups to join them in a move directed towards the west of the country. In response to this mobilization the Government of National Accord called for its own mobilization of armed forces and militias.
On 10/08/2024 the United Nations called on the two parties to demobilize their forces and to stay on the road of the peace agreements that had been reached in 2020. The European Union followed suit.
In response to the UN’s declaration and the mobilization of troops by the Government of National Accord, General Haftar claimed on 13/08/2024 he was only mobilizing his forces to battle drug smugglers and human traffickers on the borders of his regions.
On 14/08/2024 the Government of National Accord tried to replace the President of the Central Bank with a person that would be more representative of national interests. The Government of National Accord claimed that the current president of the Central Bank is too much in favor of giving money to areas controlled by the Libyan National Army. These areas are filled with oil fields that pump out millions of gallons of oil for the international oil market.
In response to the replacement of the president of the Central Bank, Haftar decided to shut down oil production on 22/08/2024 and in this way put pressure on the Government of National Accord to not try and replace the president.
The shutdown of oil fields in an OPEC country like Libya can have international consequences, but so far has not led to any major price changes. It is reported that the transport of oil from the harbors to the international oil tankers is ongoing without pause. According to the Libyan National Army however the production of thousands of barrels a day has been halted.
Earlier in August 2024 a large Russian Navy vessel was seen in a harbor controlled by the Libyan National Army. Intelligence suggests that Russia has delivered more weapons to Haftar and his forces in order for him to be more powerful to take on the western government. Haftar’s forces may control large parts of the country, including the oil fields, but they lack connection to an international airport or larger harbors that they need to achieve the status of a more legitimate international partner. Meanwhile, Russia, the UAE, Egypt and several other African and Arab countries continue to support Haftar with weapons, troops and intelligence.
Libya, under the guidance of the United Nations, has planned general elections across the country in October 2024. These elections have been postponed many times and it is uncertain whether or not they will take place in an atmosphere of heightened tensions.
Analysis:
According to the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the situation in Libya has not been this tense since 2020. A peace agreement between the Libyan National Army and the Government of National Accord was reached after the second civil war that had lasted from 2015 to 2019. Both sides agreed to form a government and reach agreements on for example holding general elections and running the economy.. However, since the peace agreement there has not been much of a change in attitude towards each other in Libya. Both sides are vying for power and control over major hubs and resources in the country. It is likely that both parties will try to gain the upper hand in the run up to the elections so they can solidify their possession of major assets. Both parties might try to sabotage elections as a measure to increase their foothold over important assets.
Foreign powers, like Russia, the UAE and Egypt, in the past sent thousands of troops to aid the Libyan National Army in its struggle for power in the hopes of being the first in line to benefit from the large oil fields in Libya. Even though, according to the 2020 peace agreement, foreign troops are no longer allowed in the country, it is very likely that foreign actors are still supplying weapons, intelligence and other forms of support to the Libyan National Army. If the elections in October 2024 do not pan out in favor of the Libyan National Army there is a chance that foreign powers will once again advise general Haftar to seek confrontation with the Government of National Accord in order to gain more control over Libya.
The United Nations, the European Union and the United States are at this moment preoccupied with the war between Ukraine and Russia and the war between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthi from Yemen. It is likely that money and resources are not being deployed as much as could be possible in order to support the Government of National Accord. This situation gives countries like Russia, Egypt, the UAE or even Iran the time and space to get a good foothold on Libyan soil again after their departure in 2020. It is highly unlikely that the UN will be able to make a case in the Security Council to act on sending more help and support to Libya in the coming months. If the October elections do not pass by freely or even end in violence, the UN will not be able to stop a third civil war from happening.
If Libya devolves into civil war once more it will have repercussions for the North-African region and it could herald in a new era of instability for countries adjacent to Libya as a spill-over effect will be felt. Refugees will flee Libya and will try to reach Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia. But with hundreds and thousands of refugees already fleeing wars in Sudan, Mali and other sub-saharan countries it will quickly turn into a humanitarian crisis. The European Union will also have to deal with an increased flow of refugees coming from North-Africa. The very lucrative, and highly criticized, deals the EU has made with Libya, Tunisia and other countries to stem the flow of refugees will fall apart. The EU now pays for its own border security by supporting the Libyan Navy to stop boats from crossing or to stop refugees from crossing into Libya through the deserts in the south. There is no guarantee that any warring faction will hold itself to the agreements reached with the EU if they are even still capable of performing their duties.
Meanwhile, terrorist organizations like ISIS, Al Qaeda and others will undoubtedly reap the benefits of another civil war. Several organizations have been present in the country for decades and have used old smuggling routes and the willingness of local militias to do their dirty work for a handful of dollars. A renewed crisis in Libya will make it possible for terrorist organizations to grow their numbers and perhaps take possession of critical infrastructure like oil fields and airports in order to sustain their global networks.
Conclusion
Even though it is too early to tell, it seems that the rival factions in Libya have decided they need to solidify their tactical positions across the country before the elections in October 2024. Both sides are antagonizing the other by mobilizing forces and asking militias, clans and mercenaries to join their side and strengthen their forces. Several armed clashes have already taken place in the capital of Tripoli between smaller rival factions, but it is likely that the major parties are looking to get the allegiance of as many militias as possible. Airport, oil fields and harbors are in high demand by both parties as it will give them more control over how the successes of the oil production will be divided. By trying to appoint a new president for the Central Bank, the Government of National Accord is willing to aggravate the situation to the dismay of the United Nations who is desperately trying to get the October elections going as smoothly as possible. It is however to be seen if either party is willing to listen to outside voices calling for peace and unity while the cry for greed and lust for power seems a lot more appealing.
