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Date: 28/10/2024
Where:
Ukraine, Russia
Who’s involved:
Parties: Russia, North Korea, Ukraine
What happened?
On 28/10/2024, NATO confirmed that North Korea has sent troops to Russia to join the war against Ukraine and that they have been deployed in the Kursk region. The exact number of North Korean troops in Russia is still not yet determined. U.S. and South Korean intelligence have now claimed there are 3,000 North Korean troops training in Russia. Ukrainian intelligence claims the figure is closer to 12,000 troops.
On 28/10/2024, South Korea began diplomatic talks with the U.S. and NATO to discuss the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia.
On 25/10/2024, the Dutch Intelligence services joined Ukraine, the U.S. and South Korea in confirming that up to 1,500 North Korean troops have been sent to fight in Russia’s war against Ukraine on the battlefield, though their specific role is uncertain. The North Korean special forces units are expected to be deployed against the Ukrainian military within Russia’s Kursk region.
On 25/10/2024, South Korea and Poland are close to signing a deal that would send K2 tanks to Poland which would aid in their support in backing Ukraine in the war.
On 24/10/2024, South Korea warned that it might send weapons to Ukraine after North Korea deployed troops to Russia. The presidential office said it may upgrade its aid to Ukraine from purely defensive weapons to offensive weapons, depending on North Korea’s involvement in the war.
On 18/10/2024, South Korean National Intelligence services released satellite images which they claim show North Korean personnel in a training ground at Russia’s Ussuriysk military facility. More satellite images were released showing a Russia naval vessel which is suspected of transporting North Korean troops to a Russian port.
Analysis:
North Korea has shifted in importance to Russia from being just an arms supplier to now being an active participant in their fight against Ukraine. North Korea’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict has also proved mutually advantageous; it has earned North Korea approximately $540 million from arms sales to Russia. Russia and North Korea signed a landmark defense pact in June 2024 which would mean both countries would provide immediate military assistance to each other in the case of an attack. With North Korean troops possibly used for combat purposes, it offers a unique opportunity to test its military capabilities in real combat conditions. North Korea currently has 1.3 million active soldiers and 7.5 million soldiers on reserve with 8 to 10 years mandatory years of military service making them experienced but lacking exposure to real-life combat conditions.
Russia’s training and deployment of North Korean troops in its conflict with Ukraine suggests that the war is not unfolding as Russia had planned. Their reliance on foreign forces highlights a growing strain on Russia’s military, in which an estimated 600,000 troops have been killed or wounded since the full-scale war started in 2022. Moreover, the Kremlin’s increasing dependence on weapons deliveries from countries like Iran and North Korea point to a depletion in Russia’s own weapon stockpile. Despite Russia’s initial expectation of an expeditious campaign, recent development demonstrates they have faced challenges in maintaining a strong front in the war.
The participation of North Korea taking a more direct role in the Russia-Ukraine war could destabilize Ukraine's defenses. The additional North Korean troops will add more pressure to the Ukrainians’ defensive lines and maintain their positions in the Kursk region. However, it is not clear yet if they will make a difference to Russia’s war effort.
South Korea has stated that they are considering sending offensive weapons to Ukraine to aid in the war following intelligence on the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. South Korea is profoundly concerned that the deal includes assistance to raise Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programme, or that Russian soldiers could be deployed to North Korea in the future. Russia’s reliance on North Korea enables North Korea to obtain more missile and nuclear capability technology.
Conclusion:
Intelligence reports from western governments suggest that North Korean troops are being trained in Russian military facilities; the exact number of troops are still to be determined. Although it is not yet clear on the role of North Korean troops for the conflict, the strategic partnership and recent deployments have raised significant alarms for the international community. Whilst alliance mutually benefits Russia and North Korea, Europe and the Indo-Pacific should be fully prepared for an escalation in the conflict that could reach beyond the borders of Ukraine and exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis and mass displacement of people.
