Intel Brief: Rising Tensions and Uncertainty in the MENA Region

Date: 21/02/2025

Where:

Israel

Who’s involved:

Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria

What happened?

Israel-Palestine:

Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire deal that took effect on 19/01/2025. The agreement is aimed at increasing humanitarian aid, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. On the first day of the ceasefire, Hamas released the first three Israeli hostages as part of the agreement, while Israel freed 90 Palestinian prisoners. By 22/01/2025, more than 2,400 aid trucks had entered Gaza.
On 21/01/2025, Israeli security forces raided the West Bank city of Jenin, killing at least nine Palestinians. Additionally, thousands of Palestinians waited at roadblocks to return home to northern Gaza on 26/01/2025, following a refusal to open crossing points by Israel. Hamas agreed to hand over three Israeli hostages, and Israel opened roadblocks the following day.
On 09/02/2025, the Israeli military completed its withdrawal from Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor as part of the ceasefire deal.
On 10/02/2025, the Israeli military continued attacks on Jenin, in the West Bank, resulting in the deaths of three Palestinians, including a pregnant woman. On the same day, Hamas temporarily suspended the release of 76 hostages, citing Israeli violations of the ceasefire by allowing heavy machinery back into Gaza.
On 13/02/2025, Hamas announced that it would proceed with the planned releases, after threats from Trump and Netanyahu to escalate violence if hostages were not freed by 15/02/2025.
On 17/02/2025, Netanyahu instructed Israeli negotiators to travel to Cairo to discuss the stalled second phase of the ceasefire. The delegation will be led by Secretary of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, replacing Mossad chief David Barnea, who led the January negotiations that resulted in the current deal. Whether Barnea will continue as part of the Israeli negotiating team remains unclear. So far, no progress has been reported, and Israel continues to block the entry of tens of thousands of mobile homes and tents into Gaza, despite this being a condition of the truce.
On 17/02/2025, threats of a direct attack on Israel were revived by senior commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), also known as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, likely in an attempt to deter a potential Israeli strike on Iran and influence Israeli decision-making.
On 18/02/2025, Hamas proposed releasing all Israeli captives at once in exchange for a complete end to the war. Israel has not yet issued an official response to this permanent truce.

Syria:

Since the fall of Assad’s regime on 08/12/2024, Al-Sharaa has been named Syria’s interim president on 29/01/2025. Since then, Al-Sharaa has met with Saudi-Arabian crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (02/02/2025), Turkey’s president Erdoğan (04/02/2025) and had a phone conversation with Russian president Putin to establish support (12/02/2025). Additionally, the EU has agreed to lift some of the sanctions against Syria to help stabilize Damascus (27/01/2025).
As of 18/02/2025, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the last major armed group not to have integrated with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces, appears willing to do so soon. However, there are still several unresolved issues in the negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian interim government, especially regarding the scope of the SDF dissolution.
On 24/01/2025, satellite imagery showing a new construction by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the demilitarised buffer zone with Syria was released. It is also reported three Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) brigades are set to remain indefinitely in southern Syria near the Golan Heights-Jordan border.

Lebanon:

On 9/01/2025, Joseph Anon was elected as Lebanon’s president, ending a three-year power vacuum.
On 02/02/2025, Israel announced plans to establish permanent military outposts adjacent to each northern community along the Lebanon border, as part of a new defense strategy against Hezbollah. Despite a renewed withdrawal deadline for 18/02/2025, the IDF has announced it will keep soldiers stationed in 5 locations in southern Lebanon.
On 02/02/2025, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem announced that a funeral for former Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safiedine will be held in Beirut on 23/02/2025. The high-profile funeral is expected to draw officials from Hezbollah’s allies, including Iran, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as Hezbollah fighters and civilian supporters. The first visitors attending the funeral have been documented, and many Baghdad-Beirut flights are fully booked ahead of the Hezbollah leader's funeral, prompting MEA to schedule additional flights. As previously advised, avoid Beirut and southern Lebanon on the days around the funeral for precautionary measures. If possible, temporarily relocate to northern Lebanon until 25/02/2025.
On 13/02/2025, Lebanon denied an Iranian plane permission to land at Rafic Hariri International Airport following Israeli accusations that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was using civilian flights to funnel funds to Hezbollah. This decision led to pro-Hezbollah protests on 15/02/2025.
On 21/02/2025, the Israeli army launched air strikes on sites along the Syria-Lebanon border, claiming that Hezbollah was using them to transfer weapons into Lebanon.

Egypt:

On 27/01/2025, President Trump suggested that Jordan and Egypt take in large numbers of Palestinians from besieged Gaza. Both countries have rejected this idea.
The Egyptian government is formulating a plan to rebuild Gaza while ensuring the Palestinian population remains in place, offering an alternative to U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to forcibly relocate its residents and take over the territory. The leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the Palestinian Authority will gather in Saudi Arabia on 04/03/2025 to discuss the proposal.