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Date: 24/09/2024
Where: Sahel Region, West Africa
Who’s involved:
Sahel Region, AES (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso)
ECOWAS (Benin, Nigeria, Togo)
Russia, U.S., France, Italy, Germany
Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, Islamic State
What happened?
On 15/09/2024, the US completed its removal of their roughly 1000 troops located in the Sahel region thus marking the end of nearly all Western influence in the area. Italy is an exception given that they still have around 300 troops that remain in the region. This removal also finalizes the end of the previous agreement between Niger's government and the US, preventing them from continuing their counter-terrorism efforts.
On 16/09/2024, the AES announced the introduction of new biometric passports, which will be implemented in the next few days. According to the Malian Junta Leader, this will facilitate seamless travel for all citizens within the AES in addition to standardizing travel documents across the alliance. There are also plans to implement a shared information channel to foster the exchange of information among the alliance.
On 16/09/2024, two police officers were ambushed in northern Benin near the border with Niger. This incident follows a similar attack in June 2024, in which seven soldiers were killed in Pendjari National Park, on the border with Burkina Faso. The rise in cross-border attacks underscores the growing security concerns in northern Benin.
On 17/09/2024, a major jihadist attack occurred in the Malian capital Bamako. The Al-Qaeda-linked group JNIM has since claimed responsibility. The attack began at 5.30 a.m, targeting the gendarmerie training center in Falidie district and Modibo Keita International Airport. The attack resulted in significant human and material loss, fire was set to several military, government and UN aircraft. This is the first major attack on the capital since 2015, when Mali was ruled by a civilian government and assisted by French troops.
Islamist armed groups in the Centre-Nord region of Burkina Faso have significantly increased attacks on civilians. Between January and September 2024, jihadist attacks resulted in at least 2,000 civilian deaths. Large portions are now controlled by jihadist groups, leaving the government in control of roughly half of the country’s territory.
Analysis
Since the withdrawal of western and UN troops, there has been a noticeable increase in attacks from groups in the AES area. According to ACLED, civilian targeting has increased in the first half of 2024, with 3064 reported fatalities compared to the previous six months which had 2520 civilian fatalities. JNIM is the most active rebel group in the Sahel with data showing that violent events conducted by them occurred three times more from 2022 to 2023. There is a strong indication that violence, in particular towards the civilian population, is only going to continue and potentially worsen without Western aid.
Most recently, attacks have taken place in Bamako, Burkina Faso and on the border with Benin. With Western troops departing the region, the AES countries' ability to tackle the threat of jihadist groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State have significantly reduced. With growing anti-western sentiment and the desire for non-western alliances, the AES has turned to an alliance with Russia. Mali hosts around 2000 Russian soldiers, while only an estimated 100 are present in Burkina Faso. Niger also received Russian units, but the number is unknown. However, the aid of Russia’s Africa Corps (former Wagner group) has until now been limited in scope, with questions arising regarding their ability to aid in the counterterrorism efforts while also protecting civilians. Therefore, there is the concern for an escalation of significant threats across the AES and potentially beyond. With the potential for escalation, the number of displaced persons might also rise, thus putting a strain on bordering countries.
The ECOWAS has been established for 49 years between 15 West African nations. Its aim is to promote regional peace, stability and foster security and growth across the region through integration and cooperation amongst its members. Following the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the already faulty integrity and credibility of the ECOWAS was diminished further. With the introduction of the biometric passports, the previous coordination and collaboration between the nations is further fragmented in various ways. The prior protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, Residence and Establishment across the ECOWAS allowed citizens of its member states to travel using a standardized passport, which enhanced the ease of travel and trade across its borders. The introduction of the AES biometric passport will disrupt this movement and is exacerbated by the standardization of AES travel documents. Beyond this, it could signal that the Sahel countries are simply prioritizing their own security threats rather than focusing on threats to the entire West African region. Overall, this will likely weaken the efforts of the ECOWAS to coordinate and integrate security measures, trade and movement across the region that have taken 49 years to attain.
Conclusion
The increase in attacks and the potential spread of conflict is crucial to observe because the violence can expand into bordering ECOWAS countries, such as Benin and Togo. The protection that the AES-countries had from Western troops against the Islamic State and JNIM groups is also no longer present and will have significant repercussions on the rest of the wider region and continent. Increased displacement, disruption of movement, and a strain on trade across borders would affect the countries within the AES and the nations within the ECOWAS.
