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Date: 23/09/2024
Where: Turkey
Who’s involved: Turkey, BRICS Nations
What happened?
On 04/09/2024, Yuri Ushakov, President Vladimir Putin’s foreign affairs aide told reporters that Turkey formally applied to join the BRICS economic forum (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
On 01/01/2024, BRICS admitted Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, signaling a desire for further growth and influence.
On 20/08/2024, Azerbaijan formally applied to join BRICS, this will make it easier for Turkey to align with BRICS policies as Azerbaijan is Turkey’s main partner in the Caucasus region.
The 2024 BRICS Summit will be held in Kazab, Russia, from 22/10/2024 to 24/10/2024.
Analysis:
BRICS is a block of emerging major economies founded on 16/06/2009 that seeks to reshape the global order and challenge western dominance. BRICS aims to promote multipolarity, reform international institutions, and enhance cooperation in area’s like trade, finance, and development.
The move marks another step in Turkey and Azerbaijan’s deepening alignment on foreign policy. This is one of Turkey’s biggest steps since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, during which Turkish armed forces were involved in training and arming the Azerbaijani forces.
Turkey’s bid indicates a potential shift in its foreign orientation. Turkey’s motivations include economic diversification, geopolitical leverage and regional leadership aspirations.
First, the Turkish economy is experiencing numerous obstacles, including a continuous currency crisis and excessive inflation. Ankara's post-2023 economic model is mainly reliant on getting investment from Western countries. However, these expectations have not been met, with new investments predominantly focused on short-term financial benefits rather than long-term growth. The BRICS grouping, particularly China and the New Development Bank, represents an alternate source of investment and funding. By joining with the BRICS economies, Turkey seeks to gain access to new trade opportunities, alternative investment sources, and improved integration into global supply networks.
Turkey's desire for BRICS membership suggests its desire to play a larger role in global governance and demonstrate its strategic autonomy. The move reflects growing discontent with the stalled EU accession process and perceived neglect of its security issues within NATO. Turkey aspires to diversify its alliances and lessen its reliance on traditional Western partners, particularly in light of continued differences over critical issues including defense procurement, regional security, and political alignment. By joining BRICS, Turkey hopes to get a voice in global economic policy changes and engage more directly with major global actors such as China, India, and Russia.
Moreover, Turkey's BRICS bid could have consequences for the bloc's dynamics, as well as Ankara's regional and global status. It emphasizes Turkey's vision of a multipolar international order and willingness to serve as a bridge between the East and the West. Turkey's potential participation in BRICS would provide strategic depth, allowing the bloc to enhance its influence in the Balkans, Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus.
President Erdoğan's anticipated presence at the 2024 BRICS meeting in Russia will offer significant perspectives on the bloc's openness to accepting Turkey's bid for membership. It is expected that the meeting would cover BRICS expansion, paving the way for future talks on Turkey's accession.
Turkey's potential BRICS membership carries significant implications for a range of actors:
Turkey:
Economic diversification: Gaining access to BRICS' markets and development money might help Turkey's economy and reduce its reliance on Western investment.
Geopolitical leverage: Turkey's membership in both NATO and BRICS would provide it power and maneuverability in global affairs.
Regional leadership: Turkey may strengthen its position in the Middle East and Central Asia, potentially managing crises and boosting economic cooperation.
BRICS Nations:
Expanded influence: Gaining a NATO member would enhance BRICS' global reach and legitimacy, challenging Western-centric institutions like the EU.
Economic benefits: Turkey's strategic location and economic potential could boost intra-BRICS trade and investment and help China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Internal dynamics: Turkey's membership could shift the power balance within the bloc, requiring adjustments in existing member states' strategies.
EU and US:
Strained relations: Turkey's closer alignment with BRICS could further strain its ties with the West, potentially impacting trade, security cooperation, and even its NATO membership.
Geopolitical challenges: The West might face increased difficulty navigating a multipolar world with a more assertive Turkey aligned with BRICS.
Regional Actors:
Middle East & Central Asia: Turkey's growing influence within BRICS could impact its relations with regional rivals and allies, particularly those with conflicting ties to BRICS members.
Conclusion:
The conclusion of this bid has big implications, affecting Turkey's relations with both Western and non-Western states. The changing geopolitical landscape emphasizes the importance of constant assessment and change as Ankara navigates its complex relationships with many global entities.
Acceptance: The BRICS may admit Turkey under specific circumstances. These could include policy changes concerning trade, investment, currency, or even foreign policy alignment. China, as a significant BRICS actor, may use its influence to guarantee that Turkey remains impartial on matters involving Taiwan, the South China Sea And the persecution of Uyghurs. Russia, which is increasingly isolated, may see Turkey's admission as a diplomatic win and an opportunity to enhance ties. India, concerned about Turkey's connections with Pakistan, may seek assurances of regional stability.
Rejection of the Bid: In an unlikely scenario, BRICS could reject Turkey's application, citing concerns about its geopolitical alignment with the West or internal disagreements among existing members. However, given the bloc's expansion plans and Turkey's strategic importance, this outcome appears less likely.
