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Date: 17/09/2024
Who’s involved:
Parties: Israel, Hamas, Houthi, IRGC, Hezbollah
What happened?
A military raid was launched by Israel in the occupied West Bank, including Jenin, on 28/08/2024, involving hundreds of ground soldiers, fighter jets and drones resulting in the arrests and deaths of several militants.
On 31/08/2024, the bodies of six Israeli hostages were found in the Gaza strip by the IDF, retrieved from a tunnel under the city of Rafah. This recovery ignited days of protests against the Netanyahu government telling him to forge a deal with Hamas on the release of the remaining hostages.
On 02/09/2024 the United Kingdom suspended 30 out of 350 arms exports licenses to Israel, fearing that they could have been used in serious breaches of International humanitarian law.
Despite the Israeli protests on 02/09/2024 demanding a ceasefire, on 03/09/2024 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defined the control of the Philadelphi Corridor as a necessary part to reach a ceasefire agreement, and blamed Hamas for the stalling of the deal and the killing of the hostages on 31/08/2024.
On 05/09/2024, Hamas affirmed not to be willing to agree on a new ceasefire deal for Gaza, since it had already accepted the U.S. proposal of July 2. Instead, it pressured Israel to accept the already existing one, and it accused Netanyau of using the Philadelphi corridor in southern Gaza as an excuse to thwart the deal and continue the violence against palestinians.
On 06/09/2024, the American-Turkish activist, Aysenur Eygi, was killed during a protest in the occupied West Bank by an Israeli sniper. The IDF claims it was targeting another person at the protest who was carrying a molotov cocktail. An investigation is pending.
On 08/09/2024, Israeli special forces attacked an Iranian missile production facility in Syria, destroying the site, and targeted a Syrian military headquarter. During the raid four IRGC commanders were captured and abducted by Israeli troops.
On 11/09/2024, the US government demanded an overhaul of Israeli military conduct in the occupied West Bank. On the same day, Israel launched several airstrikes on southern Lebanon, killing a senior Hezbollah commander. According to the Israeli defense minister Gallant, the focus is shifting from Gaza to Lebanon. He is preparing the troops for a ground operation in the region.
On 12/09/2024 Turkey opened an investigation into the death of the Turkish-American activist, and showed the willingness to request an international arrest warrant.
On 15/09/2024, a long-range ballistic missile was fired by the Iranian-backed Houthis. The missile hit central Israel and triggered air raid sirens in Tel Aviv and the Ben Gurion international airport.
On 17/09/2024, several members of the Israeli government announced that returning displaced Israeli citizens from the north back to their homes has first priority. The Netanyahu government believes that the only way for them to return home is when Hezbollah can no longer launch missiles and UAVs at the north from the south of Lebanon, implying that a military operation is on hand.
Analysis:
The ongoing conflict and the long impasse on a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is causing turmoil amongst Israelis, who are pressuring the government to accept the ceasefire. Hamas is reiterating its willingness to accept the already existing US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel, but Netanyahu is sticking to his conditions regarding the Philadelphi Corridor. The more time passes, the higher the likelihood of a decline in Netanyau’s political consensus. If the hostilities with Hezbollah continue and escalate into a war, there is a possibility of further worsening of the internal political and social situation.
The past months have seen an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. The attacks between the parties continue, and the IDF is getting ready to undergo military operations in Lebanon. It is likely that this will lead to a ground war between Hezbollah and Israel in the southern part of the region, Beirut and the Bekaa Valley, which would all suffer a severe humanitarian crisis. The conflict will likely entail the intervention of Iran and its proxies, and would probably affect the current peace negotiation between Israel and Hamas, leading to other internal protests in Israel. The war would likely spread in all the neighboring countries like Lebanon, Syria and possibly Jordan and have severe economic, social and political consequences.
Iranian influence in Israel's neighboring countries is widespread, and the involvement in the recent attacks against Israel makes the situation more unstable. The hostilities between Israel and Iran are escalating, and it is likely that the latter will use its relations with Syria and Hezbollah to play a pivotal role in the conflict. Israel has been targeting Islamic Republican Guards Corps troops working in Syria through air strikes and raids by special forces. It is likely that Israel will continue to do this as the tensions with Hezbollah are increasing. Israel will target the weapons and advisors pipeline that comes from Iran into the Levant.
Conclusion
The war between Israel and Hamas may come to an end soon as Hamas has suffered severe losses and is ready to accept a ceasefire. The Philadelphi corridor seems to constitute an obstacle in the negotiations, but Israel seems to be ready to end its major operations and focus on surgical attacks.. However, Iran and its proxies have ramped up their attacks on Israel from several different fronts, such as Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. It is likely that Israel will respond by targeting military facilities across the region where the IRGC has been training and arming Iranian proxies. Air strikes and special force incursions in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen are likely to continue the coming weeks, and a vast Israeli ground operation against Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon is now likely to happen.
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