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Date: 21/11/2024
Where:
Lebanon, Israel, Gaza, Turkey, Qatar
Who’s involved:
Hamas, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Qatar, US
What happened?
Israel-Hamas
On 19/11/24 the government of Qatar and a Palestinian official announced that senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya as well as several other leaders are no longer in Doha, Qatar. Their current location is kept secret although some are suspected to have left for Turkey. The US warned Turkey against hosting the Hamas’ organization in light of speculations that Hamas was opening up a new office there.
On 18/11/24 the Turkish government dismissed reports that Hamas had moved its political office to Turkey from Qatar after it was reported that Qatar had agreed to remove Hamas from its territory. Turkish officials explained that Hamas members would merely visit the country occasionally.
On 17/11/24 Israeli airstrikes on Beit Lahia in northern Gaza killed and injured dozens of Palestinians. In the south of Gaza, in Rafah five people were killed by an Israeli drone attack and 15 people were killed by attacks on refugee camps in central Gaza. Israel's ground offensive has displaced roughly 130,000 people in northern Gaza. In the towns of Jabalia, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun 75,000 people are under siege according to the UN.
On 14/11/24 a series of agreements concerning trade, military and technical cooperation were signed by Qatar and Turkey in Ankara during a visit of Qatar's Emir to President Erdogan.
On 09/11/24 Qatar terminated its role as a mediator between Hamas and Israel after concluding that both sides were no longer engaging ‘constructively’ in the ceasefire negotiations. At the same time Qatar stated that it would be willing to restart mediation efforts if both Israel and Hamas demonstrate readiness to end the war.
On 09/11/24 Qatar was reported to have agreed to remove Hamas from its territory, following pressure from the US after Hamas had rejected the latest ceasefire proposal. However, the statement leaves open on whether the office in Doha would be closed. It merely stated that the Hamas office no longer has a reason to be there.
Israel-Hezbollah
On 20/11/2024 Hezbollah political official Mahmoud Qmati said that any US-brokered ceasefire deal between the group and Israel must end fighting and preserve Lebanon’s sovereignty. The statement comes after Israel's PM stance on 18/11/2024 that the country will keep striking Hezbollah even with a truce in place.
On 20/11/2024 Israel’s military struck a Lebanese military vehicle in southern Lebanon, killing a soldier. The Israeli attack follows an attack in the southern town of Sarafand, which killed three Lebanese soldiers. On the same day, the Lebanese National News Agency (NNA) reported that Hezbollah fighters clashed with Israeli troops trying to advance in the South Lebanon governorate. Hezbollah fighters fired rockets and missiles at the invading troops and destroyed a Merkava tank.
On 19/11/2024 US envoy Amos Hochstein landed in Beirut for talks on a ceasefire between the Hezbollah group and Israel. The US envoy stated that there is a real opportunity to bring the conflict to an end.
On 19/11/2024 Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to a US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel, which refers to the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a previous war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. The deal would see Hezbollah withdrawing armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River. In addition, the ceasefire agreement states that Israeli forces must withdraw from Lebanese soil, and the Lebanese army should deploy in the south of the country alongside UN peacekeepers.
Analysis:
Israel-Hamas ceasefire
Following the increasingly challenging negotiations of the past months Qatar’s step to resign from its role as mediator demonstrates the lack of willingness of the involved parties to find a solution to this conflict. At the same time the historically good ties between Qatar and the Hamas, seem to be deteriorating. The announcement that Hamas officials left Qatar poses questions as to what happens with the Hamas office in Doha existing since 2012. Representatives of Hamas continue to deny that they were requested to leave the country and reports that a new office is to be established in Turkey have so far been dismissed by Turkish officials, although the presence of Hamas members in the country is openly admitted. The Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari merely stated that the Hamas office had lost its function as the negotiation process had been stopped due to Qatar's retreat as mediator. This action reflects Qatar’s strategy as a country trying to navigate the pressure put on it by the US to expel Hamas leaders, its own frustration with Hamas over their unwillingness to constructively participate in the negotiations as well as its own historical support for and relationship with Hamas.
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
The past days has seen progress on the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hezbollah. The US ambassador proposed a deal to the Lebanese government together with the Hezbollah group that said it was willing to accept on the condition that Hezbollah’s group retire its forces from southern Lebanon. Nevertheless, there are still profound differences over the future of a ceasefire deal. Israel could ask for additional concessions that the Hezbollah group might not be willing to accept. The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is also demanding the ability to act with its military to enforce the deal. However, Hezbollah will likely not accept the ceasefire if the attacks do not stop, nor will it accept freedom of movement for the Israeli military within Lebanon.
The Iranian support to the deal will likely accelerate the process, and might help the Lebanese front being more flexible regarding the possible Israeli requests in the final talks on the ceasefire. However, it might also create a stronger front against Israeli conditions, if those will be too stringent for the Iranian-backed group.
The consequences of the talks that are currently happening in Beirut will likely influence the talks between Israel and Hamas as well, and will impact the future of the region overall.
Conclusion
The ceasefire talks on the Hezbollah front seemed to be progressing, given the Lebanese government and the Hezbollah group showed positivity regarding the sign of a ceasefire. However, there are still vital unresolved issues concerning the Israeli military’s role in Lebanon and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from southern Lebanon.
Negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas have frozen since Qatar stepped down from its role as a mediator. Whether or not Qatar's incentive for both parties to focus on resolving the conflict will be fruitful remains to be seen. This applies as well for the question of the location of the Hamas office in Qatar. However, the situation is growing increasingly dire without Qatar at the negotiation table since valuable time is lost while the parties may or may not gather their will to engage constructively in the negotiations.
