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Date: 20/09/2024
Who’s involved: Tunisian government, civil society
Context:
After the Jasmine revolution and the Arab Spring in 2011, Tunisia seemed to move toward a democratic future, and Ennahda, a self-defined Islamic democratic political party, emerged as the strongest party. In 2014, Beji Caid Essebsi was elected as president, becoming the first directly elected head of State after the Arab Spring uprising. The president helped draft a democratic constitution, which guaranteed fundamental rights such as freedom of speech, and co-brokered a power-sharing deal between his Nidaa Tounes movement and Islamist party Ennahda, which helped to steady the country under a unified government. However, after Kais Saïed was elected in 2019, the country has descended into a form of autocracy. During Covid-19 crisis, through a unilateral executive decree, Saïed took control of the country, dismissing the elected parliament and since then tried to hold on to power by arresting opposition leaders, journalists and other perceived dissent.
On 20/07/ 2024 the Tunisian President expressed his willingness to seek a new five-year term, and Tunisians will be able to cast their vote in the presidential elections on 06/10/2024.
What has happened recently?
In May 2024, Tunisian authorities intensified their repression on media and freedom of expression across the country. On 22/05/2024, the Tunis First Instance Court sentenced two journalists to a year of prison. The two journalists, Borhane Bsaies, a talk show host on private TV and radio channels and Mourad Zeghidi, a political commentator, were charged for nine video clips of statements made between February and April 2024. Zeghidi was additionally sentenced for his Facebook post supporting an investigative journalist who was already serving a six-month sentence for publicly questioning a government ministry’s public spending.
On 26/05/2024, president Saïed replaced the interior and social affairs ministers following a series of arrests targeting human rights activists, lawyers, and journalists.
In August, the electoral commission eliminated three prominent candidates from the race, citing alleged irregularities in their candidacy filings, and on 05/08/2024, president Saïed denied that his government was using judicial intimidation against the opposition and the media.
On 02/09/2024, the police arrested politician Ayachi Zammel, one of the two challengers to Saïed in the polls. He is the head of the opposition Azmoun Party, and was arrested with charges of falsifying voter signatures on the candidacy paperwork. He later called the charges manufactured by Saïed.
On 13/09/2024, thousands of Tunisians marched in the streets to protest against the President Kais Saïed, whom they accuse of trying to rig the upcoming elections by detaining and intimidating his rivals.
On 14/09/2024, at least eighty members of Tunisia’s largest opposition party Ennahda were arrested, as thousands took to the streets to protest against the current President.
On 18/09/2024, presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel was sentenced to 20 months in prison.
On 22/09/2024, a draft law by Tunisian lawmakers sparked a new wave of protests. The proposed law limits the powers of the administrative court and would threaten the role of the judiciary to preserve elections’ integrity, according to Tunisian Network for Rights and Freedoms.
Analysis:
The current president's repression of the media and the opposition, the dismantling of the democratically elected municipal councils, and the recent arrest of the opposition leader Zammel, indicate that there will likely be unfair elections. In the previous months, the authorities have been arresting or prosecuting several candidates that would have run for office, and the Independent Higher Election Authority has banned fourteen of them from running on procedural grounds. Ultimately, the only candidate running for elections and confronting the current President is Zouhair Magzhaoui, who is part of People’s Movement, one of the parties supporting the exceptional measures imposed by Saïed since 2021. Since the only other candidate running is part of a political party that supports Saïed centralization of power, it is probable that Saïed will either win or make sure the government will still have the same policies and type of regime. Therefore, the political environment in which the election will take place will probably be characterized by repression and opacity. However, given the recent turmoil in the country, the elections are likely to lead to a new series of protests, stronger than the current ones. The anti-government protests and political tension might lead the situation to escalate into a revolution and regime change.
Conclusion
Tunisia is turning towards an authoritarian regime. The coming presidential election has unleashed turmoil in the country, and the population has begun to protest against the current government, which has been arresting and preventing candidates from the opposition from running for elections. The situation is tense, and the coming elections on October 6th will be a test for Tunisian democracy and civil society, and may have an impact on the neighboring countries as well.
