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Update IV: M23 advances in Eastern DRC


 

Date: 19/02/2025


Location: Goma, North Kivu Province, DRC; Nyabibwe, South Kivu Province, DRC; Kalehe, South Kivu Province, DRC; Bukavu, South Kivu Province, DRC. Kinshasa, Kinshasa Province, DRC. Bunia, Ituri, DRC.


Ground Security:

For those in North and South Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): pay extreme caution and try to relocate outside the country as soon as possible. The same applies to those in Kinshasa; pay extreme caution and leave the country as soon as possible. If you are unable to leave or have to stay in-country, stay indoors as much as possible and monitor local media for updates. Do not trust ceasefires at face value, especially unilaterally announced ones. If one is announced, monitor the news for updates and keep a cautious approach.  Note: The Dutch embassy in Kinshasa is temporarily closed to the public. If in need of help, contact the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at  +31 247 247 247.


Airport/Overflight Security:

  • Goma International Airport (GOM/FZNA) and Bukavu Kuvumu Airport (BKY/FZMA) have been seized by M23, rendering Air Traffic Control (ATC) and Airfield Services unavailable. It is NOT possible to land/takeoff or divert to Goma International Airport. The airport and runways were damaged during the fighting. Avoid landing in Goma Airport and Bukavu Kavumu Airport, even in emergencies.

  • There are two NOTAMS issued related to FIR KINSHASA (FZZA):

  • United Kingdom: it is recommended not to enter FIR KINSHASA (FZZA) within 100 NM of the eastern boundary, between the 1st parallel north and the 2nd parallel south, below FL250.

  • Canada: it is recommended not to enter FIR KINSHASA (FZZA) below FL260.

  • This means that overflying traffic at higher altitudes is generally not at risk under normal operations. However, those descending or diverting below FL260 within FIR KINSHASA face significant exposure to small-arms fire and MANPADS. Therefore, it is recommended to take precautionary measures by planning the route, avoiding alternate airports in the DRC in case of an emergency, and maintaining an altitude above FL260 in FIR KINSHASA (FZZA)

  • On 11/02/2025, the DRC prohibited any aircraft registered in Rwanda from overflying, landing or otherwise utilizing Congolese airspace. 


Latest update:

  • On 17/02/2025 Eastern Congo’s second largest city, Bukavu, fell to M23. They also gained control over Kavumu Airport in the north of the city.

  • On 18/02/2025, in response to growing instability along their border, Ugandan forces entered Bunia, the capital of Ituri province, north of the Kivu region, citing growing border instability as a reason. At the same time, M23 appears to be regaining momentum in its northward advance, an offensive that had previously seemed to stall. 

  • Meanwhile, in the south, reports suggest that the Burundian army is retreating from the DRC following M23’s continued advance in that direction. Its official spokesman denies these claims at the time of writing.


Conclusion

The situation in eastern DRC is growing increasingly dire, with Rwanda’s support for M23 remaining unwavering and the group’s advance continuing unchecked. Reports indicate that M23 is nearing the Burundian border, likely escalating tensions with Burundian authorities, as Bujumbura—the country’s economic powerhouse and former capital—lies in close proximity. Meanwhile, Uganda is also feeling the strain of the conflict and has deployed troops to the Congolese city of Bunia, north of Goma.



 

To access more updates and our analysis of the situation, please contact info@dyami.services or peter@dyami.services.




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